2024 kicks off with Tories struggling and Reform now third

2024 has started with the Tories trailing and Reform scoring a fresh poll breakthrough.

2024 has started with the Tories trailing and Reform scoring a fresh poll breakthrough.

Michael  Heaver

By Michael Heaver

Published: 09/01/2024

- 15:08

New research has registered Reform UK as the country's third most popular party for the first time with Redfield and Wilton

So we start 2024 with increasing speculation about when, oh when, the Prime Minister will choose to call the next General Election.

Rishi Sunak has indicated that it is likely to be in the second half of the year, so time is certainly ticking.

Voters will finally get their say after watching Conservative MPs oust not one, but two Prime Ministers.

And 2024 has kicked off with a pretty telling national poll that sets the mood for the election year ahead.

Unsurprisingly, Redfield and Wilton find Labour with yet another big lead. The first poll of 2024 tracks Labour on 43%, with the Conservatives actually up 3 points on 27%.

With much talk of Reform UK and the impact the party could have at the next election, it is interesting to see how it performs in the 2024 research.

As the polling firm Redfield and Wilton themselves lay out: "Today’s result also marks the first time Reform UK (11%) has placed in third position in our Westminster Voting Intention poll."

Reform have hit 11% in the survey, with the Liberal Democrats trailing in fourth on 10%. The Greens record 5% support.

Only 54% of those who voted for the Conservatives last time currently intend to do so again - a massive warning for Sunak and his allies.

Again as Redfield reveal of their poll: "15% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Labour if a General Election were held tomorrow, while 15% would also vote for Reform UK."

The three top issues for voters are the same three we saw throughout 2023: economy, healthcare and immigration.

A Labour majority Government is now clearly viewed as the most likely election outcome by voters.

And worryingly for the Conservatives, Keir Starmer now leads Sunak by a whopping 15 points in the direct head-to-head 'best PM' question.

45% of voters currently prefer Starmer to Sunak, with the Prime Minister backed by only 30% and a further 25% of voters not backing either.

You may like