Alastair Stewart: Why should we trust you, Prime Minister?

I watched the Downing Street press conference on Wednesday with fascination.

It was called to unveil Plan B for England, amid the spectre of Omicron and the looming fears over the worst it might do in the coming days and weeks.

The PM - Chief Scientific Officer to one side, Chief Medical Officer to the other - duly unveiled it: masks are again a must, in many settings; we should work from home again, if we, can from next week; proof of having been jabbed and boosted or tested will be a requirement for entry to, or attendance at, hostelries and some large gatherings; and we need to have a ‘national conversation’ about the possibility of making vaccinations mandatory.

The slides demonstrated the growth in cases but there was little or no evidence of an Omicron-related surge in hospitalisations, serious illnesses or even deaths - yet.

But there was lots on what might happen if we didn’t adopt and adhere to Plan B. And there you had it. Next up, questions.

The national press and broadcasters launched in with question after question… about parties.

To be fair, they were political rather than medical or scientific reporters but it seemed curious.

With the nation about to be put back into the little brother of lock-down, I’d have thought there would be a fierce appetite for proof we were facing a deadly threat and proof this package of measures would protect us from it.

No doubt had there been no partied and no flat refurbishments that is what they would have done.

On the plan measures, in truth it is a ‘better safe than sorry’ move and we must trust the PM and his medical and scientific advisors.

But therein lies the rub. We may still trust Vallance and Whitty but there is growing evidence many just don’t trust the PM anymore.

Here’s where last year's parties come in - or gatherings - or parties that didn’t happen, even though the invites went out weeks before and included outsiders as well as insiders.

Ministers had trod and plodded the ‘there were no parties and, if there were parties, all rules were adhered to’ stuff for days.

The guy who crafted that thin line of defence was, it seems, at one to the parties or gatherings that didn’t happen and even gave a speech and handed out awards.

So the hacks wanted to know about parties.Had it been today, they’d have wanted to know about flat refurbishments; not who paid but who asked for the dosh and when.

The PM told his standards man he didn’t; there’s now evidence - good enough for the Electoral Commission to fine the Tory party - that he did and that it was all a bit dodgy.

There are serious suggestions from serious sources that Plan B is a distraction from party-gate and flat-gate and the rest of the current gates…If it is, it is reprehensible.

If it isn’t, and it is for real, then all of yesterdays questions should have been about the flimsy arguments for Plan B and the flimsy evidence it will see off the Omicron threat.

The real question has, therefore, become “why should we trust you, Prime Minister?

The polls are already suggested a clear majority of you don’t. Even some 20% of Tories don’t, it seems.

Labour, already inching ahead in the polls, are now 8% clear according to one poll published in the last few hours.We live in a democracy and there are two key votes coming up next week which will be key:

MPs vote on Plan B on Tuesday and, on Thursday, the voters of North Shropshire choose who should replace Owen Paterson - the Tory MP who resigned over lobby-gate and denial-gate.

The number of Tory MPs saying they’ll vote against Plan B - or abstain - is in the high double figures already and some suggest it may reach 100.

It is also reported quite a few have penned letters to the Chair of the 1922 Committee suggesting another vote - a vote on the leadership of the Conservative party.

The Times leader talks of a "Trust Deficit". And the Telegraph “A breach of trust with the British people". Whether it is recoverable or not, who knows.

A victory on Tuesday with Labour support might help. A win, with a sharply reduced majority, in North Shropshire would too.

Both are possible but not yet bankers. Johnson’s greatest single strength is that his troops see him as a winner.Lose that, and all is lost.The Tories aren’t sentimental in these matter.

“The party is littered with ruthlessness on these occasions”, said former Cabinet Minister Andrew Mitchell, who believes the PM will get a grip and will survive.

So does Fraser Nelson, editor of the Spectator and a Times columnist. But he suggests there will be a price to pay, with the Cabinet taking more of a grip and reining him in.

Many also feel he needs to shed more of the bright young things around him - the young Masters and Mistresses of the Universe who thought they could do no wrong and were immune to the tedium of political accountability.

Others point out there is no obvious Tory challenger around whom a majority of the party could easily rally.

And some even suggest the sharpest criticisms come from old foes, like Dominic Cummings - settling scores - and old school Tories who find it difficult to forgive him for his high tax and big spend drift.

As James Forsyth observes, ‘they smell blood’. Labour, though doing better in the polls on voting preference, remains a work in progress as far as readiness and fitness for Government are concerned.

The PM may take paternity leave to reflect on all this.But on paternity leave or in office, he has one central question to answer: how do I win back the trust of the people, my party and not a few of my colleagues?

Because, PM, as it stands not a lot of them do.