Nothing was, EVER achieved, without optimism, without POSITIVE energy, and without, imbibing, from a glass half, FULL.
Which is why, I'm looking forward to, 2023.
As we reach, the tail end of almost three years to forget - war, pandemic and economic strife - the signs are hardly auspicious.
That half-FULL, glass, is looking a bit empty. Inflation is raging, destroying the value, of wages, and spiking the cost of goods, and energy.
Interest rates are up, increasing the cost of mortgages, loans and credit cards. And large parts of the workforce, have stopped working altogether, as part of strike action, to get a better deal.
But our problems, though serious, are temporary. Take inflation, for example, which most economists - including the Bank of England - consider may have peaked.
The one positive thing about a recession – I really am a positive thinker – is that, it REDUCES, THE demand for goods, which wipes out, INFLATION.
So a downturn, whilst an issue, for our national income, is a welcome remedy, to the greatest enemy of ALL – inflation.
With inflation LIKELY falling next year – barring a disaster – we will see, the REVERSAL, of what we suffered in 2022, with prices coming down, and the value of wages, going up. So in 2022, we are leaving a vicious CIRCLE, and in 2023, entering a VIRTUOUS one.
Only of course, if our new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stands his ground, and does not YIELD, to the trade unions, who have blackmailed the country in recent weeks.
The nurses, clearly need to get something. But to hand out unaffordable pay rises, across the board, would further inflate the national debt, which is already unsustainable, as the international BOND markets, have demonstrated.
And pay rises, would bake inflation, the source of ALL of our problems, into the system, potentially for a decade. More good news – unemployment, is historically low, which is miraculous.
There are 1.2 million, job vacancies available, and with a healthier outlook for inflation NEXT year, opportunities for the workforce, may grow rather than shrink.
There's growing evidence, that the recession itself, will be shorter and shallower, than once feared, thanks to the, fundamental strengths, of the British economy. The Euro area doing markedly worse – that’s a shame.
Plus the pound, is now robustly, strong against the dollar, having BOUNCED, back massively, and the cost of government borrowing – that all important METRIC – is heading south too.
And next year, provides more BREXIT opportunities, including, cutting bureacracy for business and further trade deals in the offing, including with India, and its population of a billion people.
And the mood music, between London and Brussels, is getting better too, when it comes to that, wretched Northern Ireland protocol, which places a border down the Irish Sea.
There are expectations, of a deal in the SPRING – in advance, of the 25 year anniversary, of the Belfast Good Friday agreement. If that issue - which needlessly divides our country – is RESOLVED, I believe, it will detoxify our relationship with the EU, and will open the door to more collaboration in the years ahead, and a happier, smoother trading relationship.
More good news for next year – our new prime minister – who looks, SET, to last more than 44 days - outlined a five-POINT, plan to tackle, illegal immigration, one which will have, an INSTANT, impact, on the numbers: a deal with the Albanian government, to return Albanian nationals, to this safe country.
That illegal migration issue, won't be solved, OVERNIGHT, but it's very clear, that this current administration, sees it, as an absolute priority, and an opportunity too.
Those ex-Labour Red wall voters don't think much, of Rishi Sunak, at the moment. But if he sets in motion, policies, to properly police our borders, I believe it will be, his “get Brexit done” moment, and Boris’s votes from 2019, could go to the new incumbent.
Illegal immigration, WILL BE, Rishi Sunak's Brexit.
We will find out next year, whether this young leader has, the vision, the political will, and the BACKBONE to tackle it. I suspect he might.
There's more good news – it keeps on coming. The pandemic is over. With as many, if not MORE people, struggling with the flu, it's starting to feel, like the good old days again.
Society is getting back to normal, with people dragging themselves, into the office, coughing and wheezing, and with pubs and restaurants, jampacked, full of people spreading germs.
It's pretty clear, the British people have called time, on Covid hysteria. Uptake of the booster has dwindled, with mainly the VULNERABLE groups, going for the jab, which is in MY view, how it should've been, in the first place.
Only a few NUTTERS, are still going round wearing MASKS, and there's, a growing consensus, that lockdowns were an absolute disaster and a colossal, historic mistake.
With the pandemic over, business confidence will come back, many peoples’ lockdown savings will be spent, and perhaps next YEAR, will be the first time, that our beloved hospitality INDUSTRY, can actually begin to recover. Economic activity and people living their lives to the full – working hard and playing hard – is the name of the game FOR 2023.
Go to the office, go to the pub and go shopping. Your country needs you.
Even energy prices, is more positive news story right now. They are coming down and will continue to fall next year, as countries seek alternative sources of oil and gas, to those from Russia.
And the smart money, is on a conclusion, to the illegal invasion of Ukraine. Russia, is losing that war – yes, it could go, to a very dark place, and we pray it doesn't - but at some point, Vladimir Putin, will be handed, a DIAMOND-encrusted, golden ladder, to climb down, which I believe he will.
Our recovery, won't happen overnight, but it begins next year. Circumstances, should begin, to shift in our favour, but it's important, that our MENTALITY does as well.
It's time to think big, think positive and move forward. Britain is bloodied but not broken, torn but not scarred. We’re still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Forget about DOOM and GLOOM. In time – if, we get this right - I'm predicting, boom and BOOM. It's my last show of the year; it's the greatest privilege, to broadcast, on the National television and radio airwaves, and this show is nothing without you.
I love your emails, I love your opinions and I love your company. Let’s do it all again ,in January. I wish you, your friends and your family, a very happy Christmas.
Yeah that's right – I called it Christmas. How brave am I?!! And I wish ALL, of you, a happy, HEALTHY, and PROSPEROUS New Year. We can do this. See you in 2023. Now, where’s that mistletoe?