Met Office can only offer 'limited guidance' on weather as forecasters unsure of what lies ahead

Met Office can only offer 'limited guidance' on weather as forecasters unsure of what lies ahead

WATCH NOW: Today's weather forecast

GB News
Holly Bishop

By Holly Bishop

Published: 13/05/2024

- 11:29

Updated: 13/05/2024

- 11:30

Looking ahead to summer, the forecaster said that chances of rain or sun are 'evenly balanced'

Britons hoping for the warm weather to continue into June could be left disappointed, as the Met Office have admitted that they can only offer “limited guidance” on next month’s forecast.

The glorious weekend weather reached its peak on Sunday, when a high of 27C was recorded in Chertsey, Surrey, making it the warmest day of the year so far. Meanwhile, on Saturday, temperatures peaked at 26C in Herstmonceux, East Sussex.

The mercury climbed steadily over the week, with the previous record set on Thursday, with a peak of 24.6C in London’s St James’s Park.

However, the sunny conditions are already short-lived, with the Met Office warning of heavy thunderstorms expected across the country. Four separate yellow rain warnings are in place over the next two days, which come with a caution for travellers that disruption is to be expected.

Today's weather forecast

The Met Office can only offer 'limited guidance' on June's weather, with a chance of rain or sun being 'evenly balanced'


However, looking ahead to June, the weather office is unable to predict whether it will be sunny and hot, or damp and cold, stating that the chances of either are “evenly balanced”.

In its long range forecast from May 27 to June 10, it said: “Signals during this period are weak and offer limited guidance beyond climatology.

“Similar weather conditions to those of the preceding few days are most likely to characterise this period to the end of May; a mixture of unsettled periods with rain and showers and settled interludes in-between.”

“By early June, the chances of above and below average rainfall are evenly balanced. There is a slightly higher likelihood of above average temperatures compared with below average temperatures, such that the chance of hot spells, although still very small, is slightly higher than normal too.”


A couple relax on deckchairs in the warm weather in Hyde Park

Sunday saw the hottest day of the year so far


Sharing his predictions on whether this summer will be a scorcher, Nick Ferris, from Netweather, is more optimistic.

He said that between 1981 to 2010, warm summers in the UK occurred within a 1-in-5 frequency, however that has since doubled, meaning chances of basking in the sunshine from the ease of your garden have greatly improved.

He said: “Most signals point to a warmer-than-average summer is most likely, perhaps not record-breaking heat like 2022, but that doesn’t mean we may not see one or two spells with high temperatures perhaps reaching the mid-30s.”

Ferris said that rain doesn’t look to be too excessive, adding that there will be a mix of “dry periods and wetter periods” over the course of the upcoming months.

Heavy rain sweeps over Piccadilly Circus in London

Thunderstorms are expected this week


Looking to the second half of May, the Met Office have predicted that showers will pour down on the UK, before a mix of a settled and unsettled weather will alternate until the month comes to a close.

In its long range forecast from May 17 to May 26, the weather office said: “Changeable with showers developing by day across the UK through the end of the week and over the weekend. The heaviest showers and greatest risk of thunderstorms across southern parts. Temperatures generally around or just a little above average, though with winds tending to be light, still feeling warm in sunnier areas.

“Over the weekend there are signs that showers may start to ease from the north with drier, more settled conditions probably becoming established for a time. Confidence lowers into the following week with signals unclear how prolonged the influence of higher pressure will be.

“So after a potentially more settled spell of weather, unsettled conditions are likely to return during the week with the wettest conditions in the west. Above average temperatures more likely than below.”

You may like