Patrick Christys: This government had little to no regard for the rules it was imposing on us

It is looking increasingly likely that there could be another lockdown or, at the very least, increased restrictions.

The Prime Minister is reportedly weighing up three plans; advising against household mixing, limiting mixing, social distancing and issuing a hospitality curfew, or declaring a full lockdown.

These decisions will be made based on modelling, projections and predictions provided by SAGE.

But there was a fascinating exchange on Twitter between Fraser Nelson of the Spectator and Graham Medley, the chair of the Sage modelling committee and a professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Now, it was fascinating, but it was also, really, quite terrifying. London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) last weekend published a study on Omicron that was so pessimistic and gloomy that, ironically, it should’ve come with a health warning.

Talk of 75,000 deaths, half a million hospitalisations…But JP Morgan had a close look at this study and spotted something big - that these models all assume Omicron is as deadly as Delta, which flies in the face of what we know about it so far based on the evidence coming out of South Africa.

It found that if you adjust the modelling to account for that, then bed occupancy by Covid-19 patients at the end of January would be 33% of the peak seen in January 2021.

This would be manageable without further restrictions.Manageable, with no need for further restrictions. When pressed on why this hadn’t been done, it was revealed by Professor Medley that, essentially, they only model bad outcomes that require restrictions but not just-as-likely outcomes that would not require restrictions.

And that that brief may have been given to them by government.

This implies a few things - a huge negativity bias within SAGE, science blindly following instructions, but worse…the implication that this government is only keen on hearing worst case scenarios and presenting them to the public.

It’s like they’re looking for excuses to impose restrictions and a lockdown.

And there seems to be a big sense now that enough is enough…in fact, that’s exactly what Steve Baker said when he booted Nadine Dorries out of a Tory WhatsApp group

But the people are also saying enough is enough. Despite what may have been reported tens of thousands of people took to the streets of London, Bournemouth, Blackburn, Gloucestershire, Bristol, Glasgow, Cardiff, Belfast and the Isle of White over the weekend to protest.

This was not an anti-vax protest. There may have been anti-vaxxers there, but these demonstrations were more of a freedom march.

Anti-restriction, anti-vaxxine passport, anti-lockdown…anti-tyranny. But not anti-vax.Demonstrators also gathered outside Manchester City's Etihad stadium to protest against vaccine safety and Covid-19 passes.

It’s pretty simple, it’s starting to look as though this government is only considering worst-case scenarios, our scientific community is blindly modelling that for them, the vast majority of the media demonises anyone who speaks out against this as an anti-vaxxer.

But it’s becoming increasingly obvious that this government had little to no regard for the rules it was imposing on us.

Here’s that infamous picture of Boris Johnson and Co at a cheese and wine infused gathering.

Not a great look.It’s looking increasingly likely that this government has no moral authority to impose additional restrictions, that the science used to justify those restrictions is blinkered and that the public and political will to comply is at an all-time-low.