Omicron surge could see 100,000 operations cancelled this winter, study warns

More than 100,000 planned operations could be cancelled in England this winter amid surging Omicron cases, according to a new study.

Using computer modelling, researchers predict 22,147 procedures could be cancelled each week across December, January and February if Covid hospital admissions reach the same levels as April 2020.

That would mean a decrease of just over a third – 33.9% – from pre-pandemic levels.

If that rises from a point seen in the first half of October 2021 at around 14,348 each week, a total of 100,273 operations could be cancelled, the study predicts.

Led by researchers at the University of Birmingham, the research team used NHS England data from September 2020 to July 2021 to develop their model.

Aneel Bhangu, consultant surgeon and senior lecturer at the National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery at the university, said: “Our study shows that as more Covid-19 patients are admitted to hospital, surgical units are forced to cancel elective operations to release capacity to treat Covid-19.

“Hospitals work hard to prioritise life-saving operations, including those helping cancer patients. The greatest impact of hospital pressures from Covid-19 is on patients waiting for non-life saving, but quality of life-transforming surgery.

“Cancellations may mean that patients wait even longer for operations like hip replacements, resulting in deterioration of their symptoms and increased disability.

“Ringfenced elective hubs are urgently needed to protect elective surgery this winter.”

Dr Dmitri Nepogodiev, research fellow in the same department, said: “Surgical patient numbers have been reduced by the measures hospitals have taken to ensure patient safety and reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospital.

“These numbers are further diminished by each incremental increase in Covid-19 admissions to hospital.”