The Bank’s policymakers are predicted to increase rates from 0.75 percent to one percent – a level not seen since early 2009 – and ramp up its forecasts for inflation as the Ukraine war compounds a crippling cost-of-living crisis.
Members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have already raised rates at each of its past three meetings to try to rein in inflation, which hit a 30-year high of seven percent in March.
The cost crunch is expected to tighten its grip later this year when the energy price cap is revised once again, with warnings inflation could peak at nine percent or even double digits in the autumn.
As households and businesses tighten their belts in the face of the cost pressures, UK growth is set to suffer and the Bank is likely to cut its outlook for the economy as well on Thursday, according to experts.
Governor Andrew Bailey has recently warned the Bank is “walking a very tight line” between tackling inflation and avoiding a recession.
Investec economists said: “The UK is in the grip of the cost-of-living crisis.
“Coupled with tax rises, this leaves a rocky road ahead.”
They expect that a recession will be averted, thanks in large part to the savings built up by households in the pandemic, but said slowing growth and soaring inflation “leaves the MPC in a bind”.
Investec is pencilling in another rate hike in August to 1.25 percent.
But it sees the Bank pausing after this “to assess how big the effect of the real income squeeze on activity turns out”, before pushing through two more rate rises in 2023.
Growth already began to pull back sharply in February as the cost-of-living squeeze took hold, with official data showing expansion of just 0.1 percent down from 0.8 percent in January.
The Bank said last month it believed growth would stand at about 0.75 percent in the first quarter, up from a previous expectation for gross domestic product (GDP) to remain flat, with the jobs market also holding up well.
But many experts see GDP flatlining in the second quarter as consumer confidence falters in the face of surging price pressures.
The Bank is also expected to clarify on Thursday how it plans sell off some of its £847billion in Government bonds, which it has built up as part of its quantitative easing programme launched amid the 2008 financial crisis.
It has already said it may consider starting active sales of the gilt portfolio, which peaked at £875 billion at the end of last year, once rates reach one percent.
While a quarter point rise would see it reach this threshold, experts do not expect the Bank to rush into so-called quantitative tightening and predict it will merely lay down the plans for such a move or launch a consultation.
The Bank of England
Yui Mok
Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey
Dan Kitwood
