Sir Keir Starmer soon starts his second year as Prime Minister, and he’s already battered and bruised from Labour’s first year back in power since 2010.
The “change” and “growth” promised are not coming quick enough to turn the tide on voters' fury with politicians, after a decade-and-a-half of flatlining living standards and creaking public services.
And now the “decade of national renewal” Labour says it needs looks very much in doubt.
However, beyond the huge challenges the Government faces in delivering for people in a tangible way, the Prime Minister has three immediate problems bearing down on him as he enters his second year.
Let’s call them the three Rs: 'Rebels, Rayner and Reform'.
Sir Keir Starmer
Rebels
The first two are threats from within his own parliamentary ranks. The “rebels” have flexed their muscles this week, forcing the Government to abandon plans to shave £5billion from the welfare bill.
The cost of health and disability related benefits is now £65billion per year, and that’s set to soar to £100billion by the end of this Parliament.
Despite pretty much everyone agreeing that the benefits system is indeed, as the Prime Minister says, “broken”, there is no agreement on how to fix it.
The preposterous spectacle of the Government literally changing a piece of legislation mere minutes from a vote, leaving little of it intact, and Labour figures on all sides fuming about the “dog’s breakfast”, is right up there with craziest Brexit days, Boris Johnson dramas and Liz Truss meltdowns.
It turns out that having a working majority doesn’t mean a Government can just do what it wants.
Dozens of Labour MPs, innately against anything that might hurt the vulnerable, have learnt that they can club together, just say “no”, and the Prime Minister will have to cave.
MPs passed the second reading of Labour's welfare reform bill, with 335 voting for and 260 voting againstParliament TVNow they’ve done it once, they’ll surely do it again.
Labour has gone to war with itself and the stability and united front that was promised has evaporated.
How to pay for it is seen as someone else’s problem - Rachel Reeves’.
The fact that taxes will likely have to rise to pay for the U-turn and that the public don’t elect divided parties doesn’t worry them as much as doing what they see as right by their constituents and their consciences.
Given there’s 403 of them, the carrot of maybe a big job down the line doesn’t work.
And many believe they’ll likely be booted out of office in four years time.
The Prime Minister’s authority is seriously damaged now, and it’s not clear quite how he gets it back over the next four years.
And that's if Starmer has four years left as Prime Minister.
Rayner
Which brings us to the second R: Rayner.
Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, and perhaps Andy Burnham - three big Labour beasts, who despite what they might say, would be popular with Labour members as the party's next leader.
Rayner says she doesn’t want to be Prime Minister.
The Deputy Prime Minister told ITV this week that there was “not a chance” of it happening, joking: “It would age me by 10 years within six months, it does, anyone who has been prime minister, it is a very challenging job.”
Angela RaynerPABut Rayner is said by many to be on manoeuvres.
The Health Secretary yesterday unveiled his 10-year plan for the NHS, and is another possible successor.
And then there’s the Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham. The most popular with members, though he’s not even an MP at the moment.
Last week, at the Nato summit in the Hague, the Prime Minister told GB News that he was “very confident” of still being in the job going into the next election and beyond.
But there are people within Labour openly airing doubts. And it doesn't take a political nostradamus to see why Labour MPs might decide to look elsewhere; just look at the polls.
Reform
Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage with his party's candidates onstage during a campaign event at Stafford Showground, Stafford
PAAnd then there's number 3 - the elephant in the Prime Minister's room - Reform UK.
As things stand, Reform are topping the polls and Nigel Farage is the bookies’ favourite to be Prime Minister after the next General Election.
Just as Labour was elected largely on the promise of change and not being the Conservatives, now many have already given up on Labour delivering that change and are turning to Reform.
Unencumbered by any record in Government, Reform are saying things popular on the right - on immigration, small boats, wokeness - while tacking to the left by lifting the two- child benefit cap and pushing ahead with reindustrialisation.
And in Farage, Reform has a leader who talks like an ordinary person; hugely appealing when the Prime Minister struggles to cut through with the public.
It has been clear since the 2025 Local Elections - when a turquoise tsunami swept up much of England - that the Government views Reform as the real opposition.
And it’s a threat that Morgan McSweeney, the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, has long warned about.
But he’s also warned about the threat to a Labour second term that comes from hundreds of Labour MPs retreating to their comfort zone of fighting for causes they care about, regardless of the cost and where voters are.
Which is what we’ve just seen.
Sir Keir StarmerPAThe Prime Minister’s team know things have got to get better, and fast.
The Prime Minister himself admitted to GB News that he’s “very confident” of still being in No10 after the next election - and will Labour into that election.
Things can and may change, of course.
But the Prime Minister can't afford another year like the first.
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