I unequivocally condemn the recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, located in the Indian-occupied region of Kashmir. This heinous act is deeply tragic, and the consequences risk spiralling into a catastrophic conflict between two nuclear-armed nations.
In the aftermath, the Modi government appears to be leveraging this crisis for political gain, engaging in dangerous rhetoric and posturing. With national elections looming and the Congress party under the renewed leadership of Rahul Gandhi gaining momentum, one must question whether this escalation is being used to regain political dominance.
Of particular concern is the Modi administration’s threat to unilaterally abrogate the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. This treaty, brokered with World Bank support, has survived multiple wars and is foundational to regional water security. Revoking it would have devastating implications for Pakistan, which relies on rivers flowing from Indian-administered Kashmir. However, such a move raises serious logistical and environmental questions:
How would India redirect such massive water flows without risking catastrophic flooding within its own territory, particularly in the vulnerable northeast India? If the strategy involves military intervention or infrastructure sabotage, the result could be disaster on both sides of the border.
India’s behaviour increasingly mirrors Russia’s approach toward Ukraine: aggressive, unilateral, and dismissive of international norms.
Yet the geopolitical landscape in South Asia is significantly different. China, with long-standing claims in northern Kashmir and a history of strategic rivalry with India, is a critical third actor.
Any Indo-Pak conflict could present China with an opportunity to exploit northern vulnerabilities and assert greater control along the contested border regions. A two-front military confrontation would be deeply destabilising for India.
Despite India’s numerical military superiority over Pakistan, geography, terrain, and extended borders present significant challenges. Historically, Indo-Pak conflicts have often reached a military stalemate. In a nuclear context, even a limited war would have catastrophic regional and global repercussions.
Narendra Modi's dangerous gamble on Pakistan plays into the hands of India's real enemy - Khalid MahmoodGetty Images
Such escalation threatens to derail India’s aspirations to become a global economic leader. Armed conflict would damage trade, investment, and diplomatic relationships, potentially setting back India’s economic ambitions by decades while allowing China to fill the geopolitical and commercial vacuum.
Internally, the risks are equally alarming. India is home to over 200 million Muslims, many of whom already face systemic discrimination and violence. In a heightened war climate, the potential for widespread unrest, retaliatory violence, and further marginalisation of minority communities is significant.
Sikhs seeking autonomy, Dalits, Christians, and other marginalised groups who are already subject to persecution may also see worsening conditions and lead to internal communal violence.
Escalation military, political, or rhetorical serves no one. The Modi government must abandon this course of aggression and instead pursue de-escalation, dialogue, and reconciliation. Above all, it must end the persecution of minorities and commit to the democratic values that form the foundation of a truly united, peaceful, and prosperous India.
