All-out war with Russia on Nato’s eastern flank is “a very real possibility”, the former head of the US Army’s European command has said following leaks of Germany’s preparations for a huge Russian attack next year.
The plans, revealed by German newspaper Bild, chart what the German Army expect a direct conflict between Nato and Russia to look like – with May 2025 circled as the potential start of a new global conflict.
However, Ben Hodges, commanding general of United States Army Europe between 2014 and 2017, said Russia would only brave an invasion if it thought Nato was unprepared or divided.
He said that Russia “only respects strength”, and issued the warning that if it senses weakness, it “will continue to move forward”.
Nato leaders “should talk to us like adults” said Ben Hodges
ReutersHodges said: “If [Russia] did it, it would be because they made the assessment that we were not ready or unified inside the alliance or that we did not have adequate ammunition or the ability to move fast enough.
“But if we are prepared, they still have a long way to go.”
In a rallying cry to Nato countries, he said: “The best way to prevent a war from ever happening is to demonstrate that you’re prepared for it”.
His comments were echoed by Volodymyr Zelensky, who called for Western unity and support for Ukraine at the World Economic Forum in Davos today.
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Olaf Scholz's Germany has been praised for its “readiness” for Russian aggression
PASpeaking to MailOnline, Hodges said: “The UK has always been aware of the threat from Russia, but now Germany are realising that this is something that’s only going to get worse if they’re not prepared.
“So, readiness – with all the right equipment and capabilities – is exactly what nations should be doing. And Germany is doing that.
Hodges also warned against inaction from governments, and said: “If the civilian leadership doesn’t think there’s a threat, they won’t be able to move quickly enough.
“Our leaders should talk to us like adults. It doesn’t mean you're a scaremongerer, it means you're taking precaution, which is exactly what we should be doing.”However, Igor Girkin, the Russian army veteran and former FSB officer, was less bullish about Russia’s prospects – posting on Telegram, he said Russia “will have no one and nothing with which to attack” Ukraine by spring 2024.
Girkin, a key figure in Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, detailed how Vladimir Putin would need to mobilise civilians if he wanted to bulk up the Russian army.
Ben Hodges’ analysis comes as Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine hit a stumbling block as its £274million warplane was shot down by Ukrainian forces in a “perfectly planned and executed operation”.
As Germany is keeping tabs on Russia, Russia has its eyes on winning over ‘neutral’ countries like India, Saudi Arabia and the UAE via disruptive messaging through its state-controlled broadcaster RT.The TV channel, banned in the UK and EU following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, has ramped up its propaganda efforts to boost Putin’s image in countries which have maintained trade ties with Russia.
This forms part of a strategy to stoke divisions between Nato adversaries’ ties with ‘third party’ states so Russia can tighten up its own foreign relations, which will be crucial if it is to enter into direct conflict with the West in future.