Russia is at risk of running out of troops as the Ukraine war wages on, with a former commander describing his country as being in a “very bad way”.
Igor Girkin, writing from his prison cell, suggested that Russia’s forces are light on numbers and a “broad offensive” is no longer planned for 2024.
Girkin, who played a crucial role in the annexation of Crimea in 2014, argued that Putin would need to mobilise civilians to bulk up the army.
“There will be no mobilization yet—until the 'elections' for sure,” he wrote in Russian on his Telegram account.
Girkin said Russia is in a 'very bad way'Getty“They will try to patch up 'holes in the ranks' and new units at the expense of prisoners and contract soldiers.”
He added: “In turn, means that in the spring we will have no one and nothing with which to attack (and if mobilization is not carried out in the spring, then there will be no one in the summer).
“A broad offensive (judging by the rhetoric) is no longer planned—everything is focused on 'waiting' on the defensive until Ukraine falls apart on its own or goes to negotiations,” Girkin speculated.
Girkin, who also goes by the alias Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, is currently under arrest on charges of extremism.
He was previously dismissed from the Russian Army after being found guilty of shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
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Igor Girkin was arrested in 2023 over an investigation into alleged extremism
Wiki commons images/ Dom kobbThe plane carried 298 passengers and crew, who all perished when a missile struck the aircraft as it flew over the Donbas region on July 17 2014.
In September 2022, the Russian President declared a partial mobilisation of reservists to help fight in Ukraine.
He also unveiled plans in July 2023 to raise the maximum mobilisation age to 70.
The Russian President, who is 71, will even accept soldiers who have already been discharged.
It will ensure retired reservists can serve until they are 60 and junior officials can also be recalled until they turn 55.
US intelligence said last month that Russia’s heavy losses in the war have resulted in the relaxing of recruitment standards.
In July 2023, Putin raised the maximum age for recruits to the Russian Army to 70
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Recruits of the Russian Volunteer Corps attend military exercisesREUTERS“The scale of losses has forced Russia to take extraordinary measures to sustain its ability to fight. Russia declared a partial mobilisation of 300,000 personnel in late 2022, and has relaxed standards to allow recruitment of convicts and older civilians,” the US assessment said.
Since February 2022, 315,000 troops and 2,200 tanks have been taken out of action.
Putin has not commented on the reported losses. It last issued its number of fatalities in September 2022, where the figure stood at 5,937.
Western and Ukrainian intelligence stated that they believed the number to be far higher than what Russia claimed it to be.
Speaking at his annual press conference in December, Putin said Russia currently has a total of 617,000 troops fighting in battle zones in Ukraine.
He said that “the flow is not diminishing”, stating that there was no need for further mobilisation of army reservists.