During a focus group held by pollsters More in Common last month in Walsall voters praised Nigel Farage for "speaking sense" and "saying what we all think" on immigration.
More in Common analysis based on voting intentions shows that the Conservatives are on course to secure 35 fewer seats than if Reform did not exist.
If it did not exist, the Tories would win 265 constituencies across England and Wales, almost certainly depriving Labour of a majority and creating a hung parliament.
However, the picture changes drastically if Reform wins nine per cent of the vote, as projected by More in Common’s most recent polling.
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Director of More in Common Luke Tryl said: "There’s a feeling that the Conservative Party have talked a good game but haven’t done anything about it, and that frustration is what you’re now seeing driving some Tory 2019 voters into the arms of Reform."
Pollsters said that if Farage were to campaign for Reform then "all bets are off" and the party could replicate the 14 per cent vote share achieved by the UK Independence Party (Ukip) in 2015.
More in Common’s analysis shows that, were that to happen, the Conservatives would be reduced to just 200 seats, with Labour winning a huge majority.
Pollsters are estimating that they can get a much higher figure than the two per cent the Brexit Party received in 2019.