Reform faces 'impenetrable wall' as Nigel Farage’s dream of tartan tidal wave handed damning verdict

Some 31 of those seats will come at the expense of Labour, but an extensive analysis by the People’s Channel has discovered Reform will jump to second place in 10 of those constituencies.

And among the eight instances where John Swinney’s party is expected to hold their seats, half of them will see Reform stealth their way into the second spot - for a total of 14.

However, with what a source described as “an impenetrable wall” created by the SNP, pollsters have shed light on how Reform is expected to fare in the battle for Scotland.

Nigel Farage’s meteoric rise in the country, according to pollsters, is more a story of growing disappointment in Labour and the Conservatives, with Scottish voters unsure of how the populist party’s values align with their own, especially on independence.

When asked whether Scots think Reform UK aligns with their values, George Buchan, founder of GB Insight, told GB News: “Reform UK’s recent surge in Scotland appears to be driven more by frustration with both Labour and the Conservatives than by a strong alignment with Scottish values.

“Polling shows Reform is attracting significant support from former Conservative voters, as well as drawing some backing from Labour, SNP, and Liberal Democrat supporters.”

More in Common’s polling, more nationally, showed Reform UK rising to take 290 seats across England and Wales, 223 of which come directly at the expense of Labour.

The think tank reveals that under this projection, you could walk from Workington to Hartlepool, and then all the way down the East of England to Clacton without leaving a Reform seat.

However, Buchan notes that Reform faces a roadblock when it comes to the Saltire state as Scottish voters struggle to identify with the party.

“Reform is still widely perceived as an ‘England-based’ party,” he continued, “and its right-wing populist positioning does not fully resonate with the broader Scottish electorate, which tends to lean more progressive on key issues.

“The party’s rise reflects a search for an alternative among unionist voters dissatisfied with the main parties, rather than a wholesale embrace of Reform’s values.”

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Echoing Buchan’s points about the dissatisfaction with the main political parties and the SNP’s predicted sweep of Scotland, veteran polling guru Sir John Curtice explained: “It’s a story of Labour collapse, not SNP recovery.

“Average Scotland vote changes in the poll are Labour -15.4 and the SNP +3.1.

“The main advance is by Reform (+14.1), but not enough to get them any seats in this poll.”

Reform has brushed aside assertions that Farage’s 5-strong band is “England-based”, with the party’s Scotland director, Martyn Greene, explaining: “Reform UK has now got over 11,000 members in Scotland and 15 Councillors all based in their communities across Scotland.

“The idea we are not a Scottish party is for the bird.

“Nigel Farage will fight for every person across Britain, including here in Scotland.”

Responding directly to the point about the party not aligning with Scottish values, Greene continued: “We do - Reform UK stands for common sense and we'll bring that back to Holyrood.

“We'd utilise our North Sea assets, scrap Net stupid Zero, stand up for women's rights, stop the population explosion and lower taxes.”

Drawing a comparison to the Scottish parliamentary election in Hamilton last month, Reform’s Scottish spokesman believes the party can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the SNP.

The by-election saw Reform’s Ross Lambie scoop 7,088 votes, coming in just shy of second place behind the SNP’s Katy Loudon on 7,957 and Labour’s winner Davy Russel on 8,559 votes.

Greene said: “Reform UK has already shown we are competitive against the SNP as well as Labour in Scotland.

“The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election showed SNP vote collapse while Reform made significant gains.

“Scotland is scunnered with the SNP after almost two decades in charge and only Reform is offering change.”

When approached by GB News for comment on the polling, an SNP source made clear that the threat of Nigel Farage’s party was real.

They said: “The SNP is going into the next election to win across Scotland.

“The prospect of Nigel Farage becoming Prime Minister, even without winning a single seat in Scotland, is very real - and the only way to ensure Scotland always gets the Government it votes for is with the full powers of independence.”

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The constituency of Dunfermline and Dollar is one seat in which the MRP polling shows the SNP arresting power from Labour.

It’s current MP, Graeme Downie, brushed aside the threat of the SNP and Reform, using the Hamilton by-election as evidence, when he caught up with GB News yesterday.

“You’ve got real-world evidence of what polls thought. They said we wouldn’t win the Hamilton by-election and that we’d finish third behind Reform - but we won it.

“There’s a large extent of Scotland where the polls haven't really adjusted to what is essentially a three-party system now between Labour, the SNP and Reform.”

Downie also brushed aside any notion that Reform’s values don’t align with the Scottish electorate, and reflected the SNP’s stance of taking the threat from Nigel Farage seriously.

He continued: “There’s not as much difference between voters in Scotland and England.

“The public in Scotland has the same kind of concerns as those in England. An inner city voter in Glasgow is similar to an inner city voter in Manchester.

“[Reform’s] polling in Scotland is strong. They had a strong performance in the Hamilton by-election.

“It’s a line that the SNP have made, to find Scottish exceptions that ‘we’re different from the UK’, but I don’t think we are.

“I think we’ve got to meet Reform head-on and tackle them.”

Downie concluded by saying that repeated SNP failures, especially those in relation to Scotland’s ailing public services, are “stoking a Reform push”.

Adding credence to Downie’s remarks, ex-Labour MP for Glasgow South, Tom Harris, whose former constituency is also predicted to flip to the SNP, warned Reform could eat into the Labour and SNP vote share.

He said: “The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election in June demonstrated that there is substantial support for Reform in areas that were formerly regarded as Labour and SNP strongholds.”

“What the SNP most fear, however, is a repeat of the Hamilton effect, where a decent performance by Reform splits the anti-Labour vote and allows them to hold on, as they did (narrowly) in Hamilton.”

However, the SNP isn’t the only one peddling a ticket of pro-Scottish values.

Alba Party deputy leader, Neale Hanvey, told the People’s Channel: “The rise in support for Reform since last year’s UK General Election reflects the widespread anger at the Labour Government’s utter failure to deliver for working people.”

Hanvey added: “The results of the Westminster poll come four years out from the next UK General Election but demonstrate clearly that voting patterns are diverging north and south of the border with a Reform majority in England and also in Wales and a pro-independence majority in Scotland.

“The only reform Scotland needs is Independence. The only way to stop the Reform bandwagon in its tracks is to vote Alba on the regional list.”

Asked whether Nigel Farage swiping the keys to No10 would cause a surge in Scots calling for independence, Buchan said: “It is likely that calls for an independence referendum would intensify if Nigel Farage were to enter Government.

“The SNP and other pro-independence voices would be able to frame a Farage-led Government as unrepresentative of Scottish values and priorities, echoing arguments made after the Brexit referendum.

“This narrative could resonate even with some Scots who are not committed independence supporters, as it highlights the perceived democratic deficit between Scotland and Westminster.”

Remarking on GB News’ further analysis of the MRP polling, Jake Dibden, a research fellow at More in Common, said: “It is worth noting that while Reform place second behind either the SNP or Labour in only 14 of the 57 seats, recent polling has suggested that they would win just under a fifth of the popular vote were a Westminster election held to day.

“Though this is lower than in the rest of the country, it far exceeds any level of support enjoyed by UKIP at its peak.

“If it is the view of the Scottish people that Reform is an ‘England-based’ party, this certainly seems to be less of a problem for them than Reform’s political predecessors.

“It is also worth noting that, given the historic underperformance of the right in Scotland, it is unlikely that Scotland is fundamentally stale ground for Reform in particular, and more likely that the current level of support they appear to enjoy there is either typical, or impressive for a party that occupies their political ground in British politics.

“The SNP has long stated its opposition to Nigel Farage as a politician, and has a record of staking cases for Scottish independence on the success of right-wing political campaigns (most notably Brexit), to which Farage has often been intimately related.

“As a nationalist party, it is undoubtedly likely that the SNP will use the possibility of a Reform victory in Westminster, or a coalition including Reform, as the basis for another push for an independence referendum.”

Asked whether Reform would allow an independence referendum in Scotland, Greene said: “No. Reform UK is an unashamedly pro-UK party and makes no apology for that.”