MAPPED: Seven battleground seats that could tilt the balance of power for Reform as Nigel Farage eyes No10

GB News

|

WATCH NOW: Nigel Farage takes aim at John Swinney's 'ridiculous' comments after claiming Reform leader 'doesn't care' about Scotland

Oliver Trapnell

By Oliver Trapnell


Published: 16/07/2025

- 06:00

Updated: 16/07/2025

- 08:24

As a major British region gears up for local elections, the party sweeping Britain is edging towards yet another major electoral litmus test

Nigel Farage is set for a major showdown with the SNP in the next general election, new MRP polling has suggested.

In a poll of polls by think tank More in Common, the SNP is set for a major comeback in the next election, surging to 42 of the 59 Scottish seats and bouncing back to their 2019 strength.



However, in the next election, the pro-independence party will face a new kind of foe in the image of Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, who has made significant inroads among the Scottish electorate.

Analysis of the MRP results by GB News has discovered that Reform could look to cause a major upset in at least seven Scottish seats.

Although far from a general election at time of writing, Reform UK is estimated to make major headway in the forthcoming Holyrood elections, despite top Labour figures attempting to brush the threat of Reform under the carpet.

"I don’t think Reform is going to do as well as everybody thinks in the Scottish Parliament elections," Scottish Labour’s Deputy Leader Dame Jackie Baillie boldly declared on Tuesday.

“But let’s see. I’m not one for being complacent."

In rampant retaliation, Reform's Glasgow councillor Thomas Kerr condemned Baillie's "contempt", insisting that her words indicate just how "rattled" Labour has become in the face of the up-and-coming party in Scotland.

Nigel Farage

PA

|

Reform UK has made major inroads in Scotland to the point where they could challenge the SNP at the next general election

“They sneer while Scots suffer. The SNP wrecked Scotland and Labour cheered them on. Reform will tear down their mess and give working people back their voice," Kerr reeled.

Elsewhere in the MRP polling, it was revealed that Reform UK is projected to become the largest party with 290 seats, emerging as the clear frontrunner in a multi-party race.

And, in a bitter blow for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Farage could take as many as 223 seats directly from Labour.

Below, GB News' analysis of the latest MRP polling reveals seven potential battleground constituencies where Reform UK has been tipped to fall within 15 per cent of the vote share behind John Swinney's party.

READ MORE GBN MEMBERSHIP STORIES ON REFORM UK:

Reform UK

GB NEWS

|

Scottish Labour has expressed doubts about Reform's potential success in Scotland

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Current MP: Torcuil Crichton (Labour)

Majority at the General Election 2024: 3,836

Forecast for SNP's vote share: 29 per cent

Forecast for Reform UK's vote share: 24 per cent

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey

Current MP: Graham Leadbitter (SNP)

Majority at the General Election 2024: 1,001

Forecast for SNP's vote share: 41 per cent

Forecast for Reform UK's vote share: 27 per cent

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

Current MP: Seamus Logan (SNP)

Majority at the General Election 2024: 942

Forecast for SNP's vote share: 33 per cent

Forecast for Reform UK's vote share: 24 per cent

Alloa and Grangemouth

Current MP: Brian Leishman (Labour)

Majority at the General Election 2024: 6,122

Forecast for SNP's vote share: 38 per cent

Forecast for Reform UK's vote share: 26 per cent

Bathgate and Linlithgow

Current MP: Kirsteen Sullivan (Labour)

Majority at the General Election 2024: 1,001

Forecast for SNP's vote share: 35 per cent

Forecast for Reform UK's vote share: 23 per cent

Glasgow East

Current MP: John Grady (Labour)

Majority at the General Election 2024: 3,784

Forecast for SNP's vote share: 27 per cent

Forecast for Reform UK's vote share: 23 per cent

Glasgow West

Current MP: Patricia Ferguson (Labour)

Majority at the General Election 2024: 6,446

Forecast for SNP's vote share: 27 per cent

Forecast for Reform UK's vote share: 20 per cent

More From GB News