Tom Harwood: It’s not my job as a journalist to pretend things are more positive than they are in Ukraine

Before we get into the issues today, we need a reality check.

Understandably morale matters, and it is heart-warming to see acts of Ukrainian heroism, global solidarity, and Russian folly.

But in being focussed in solely keeping up morale, in reporting and in sharing only the positives of how Putin’s invasion is being slowed – we may sadly to do a disservice to the fundamentals.

We are all more likely to want to share uplifting news, to emphasise the positives, and this may distort our perspectives. I want to believe Putin is on the brink of being brought down. I want to believe the Russian army will be kept out of Kiev.

And consequently optimism bias may distort our understanding of the real picture.

Ukraine has been invaded. Russia is still advancing. The Ukrainian army is putting up a brave fight, but is on the back foot. Hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing the country.

Despite the heroism of President Zelenskyy, and bravery of so many Ukrainian people taking up arms for the first time to defend their territory – they do so against incomparable might and planning.

This is a David versus Goliath fight.

And, as the West will understandably not set foot in Ukraine, will not risk a move that could precipitate nuclear conflict, consequently the odds are simply fundamentally against the Ukrainians.

The chances of Russian military victory in Putin’s war of aggression are still, sadly, overwhelming.

And it’s not my job as a journalist to pretend things are more positive than they are. To ignore the fact that Russian troops will soon be on the streets of Kyiv.

Fundamentally, Ukraine needs more support, and Russia needs more punishment.

Russia is overwhelmingly likely to win the short-term military portion this fight.

But what other kind of victory could we in the West seek out? If military victory is overwhelmingly likely for the Russian army, what of their capacity to keep the peace? How long could that initial victory feasibly last? Do they risk a forever war?

And what pressure points may change the Kremlin’s calculation here?

This morning, the Moscow Stock exchange did not open as usual. We will hear an announcement about when it will open and when later this morning. $10 billion has been withdrawn from Russian banks in recent days, and the possibility of a real run on those banks is growing.

Could genuine financial chaos in Russia destabilise Mr Putin. Could the oligarchs who prop him up decide it is no longer worth doing so? Might the consequences of this war of aggression simply be too much for the Russian state to weather?

Has Mr. Putin in reality, already sealed his fate