Based on current trends, the number of small boat arrivals in Britain is set to soar in the coming years.
The dire forecast, shared exclusively with GB News, comes days after Sir Keir Starmer agreed his "one in, one out" migrant deal with France.
Under the proposal, the UK will return a migrant who has a weak case for asylum in exchange for one who has a strong case.
Critics have blasted the scheme as a gimmick, with GB News columnist Dr Azeem Ibrahim opining that the sheer numbers making the treacherous journey across the Channel will overwhelm the system.
Starmer has not confirmed how many will return under the proposal, but Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the deal would "only return one in every 17 illegal immigrants arriving".
Do they have a point?
An analysis by think tank Facts4EU suggests that scores of migrants will continue to overwhelm Britain's borders.
Facts4EU's extrapolation is based on Europe's current migration levels, suggesting that - barring a radical overhaul of Britain's asylum system - she will continue to experience the downstream effects.
It is not possible to obtain accurate migration data for each of the 27 EU member states due to differences in how the data is collected at a country level.
To get around this, Facts4EU looked at the total population of the mainland, including net migration (see chart below).
The total population of the EU 27 member states has swelled to over 450 million for the first time since Brexit
Eurostat
The EU’s latest population figures show a big jump of 2.3 million non-EU born nationals on the year before, bringing the total to 44.7 million.
This represents just under 10 per cent of the population, and the trend is upward each year. This jump takes the total population of the EU 27 member states to over 450 million for the first time since Brexit.
As Facts4EU points out, the population would have been higher but for the fact that deaths have exceeded births across the EU. This has now been the case for the last 13 years, and it is mass migration that is responsible for the EU’s population growth.
Facts4EU notes that the increase in the ‘natural population’ of the EU would have been even higher but for the nearly seven million EU 27 citizens who left the EU and came to live in the UK under the EU’s Freedom of Movement rules, while the UK was still a member of the European Union.
Out of the nearly 45 million migrants living on the continent, France hosts almost 7.4 million (see chart below)
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
Cumulative growth in France's migrant population in last 15 years
Facts4EU
Is this a problem for Britain?
As the chart above shows, France's migrant population has swelled over the last 15 years but that curve rose sharply to over 930,000 in 2018.
This just so happened to be the year that people smugglers started sending small boats across the English Channel.
Since 2018, over 160,000 illegal immigrants have attempted to enter Britain by crossing the English Channel in small boats, according to Migration Watch UK.
The correlation suggests that as long as France's migration population keeps ballooning, a significant percentage will make the perilous journey across.
It's important to note that the above chart shows the increase in non-EU-born in France. It does not include all the transitory asylum seekers and those not in the system, which would make the number higher.
Nigel Farage says that the sheer numbers attempting to cross the Channel will overwhelm Britain's ports, suggesting that "we should turn back every boat" with no exceptions.
Referring to the one in, one out deal, the Reform UK leader said: "I don't believe it'll work. I believe the numbers will be very limited indeed.
"Even if it did work, where's the advantage to us? This is Brexit Britain. We voted to take back control of our borders, not to accept a deal given to us by a French President."
He added: "Nobody who crosses the English Channel illegally in a boat should ever be given refugee status, should ever be given leave to remain and should be deported. And if we did that, it would stop within a fortnight."