SNP to haemorrhage as Labour strengthens position in Scotland, polling shows

Humza Yousaf, Keir Starmer and John Swinney
Getty/ PA
Hannah Ross

By Hannah Ross

Published: 13/06/2024

- 14:18

A recent Redfield and Wilton poll shows SNP losing half of their 2019 voters

The long-reigning Scottish National Party have faced a series of political scandals and shock resignations followed by a steady decline in support.

A poll on voting intention in Scotland shows Labour are ahead of SNP as the nationalists lose their tight grip on the country.

A poll by Redfield and Wilton puts Scottish Labour on 39 per cent of the vote while SNP lags behind ten points at 20 per cent.

According to the pollsters, this is the joint-largest lead recorded by any polling company for Labour in Scotland since May 2013.

Humza Yousaf signs his official resignation letter to King Charles III at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh

Humza Yousaf resigned as First Minister of Scotland ahead of a confidence vote following the end of the SNP-Green power-sharing agreement


The June 2024 poll also shows the SNP's joint-lowest share of the vote recorded in any Westminster Intention poll released by any company since May 2013.

Only 50 per cent of Scottish voters who backed SNP in 2019 said they would vote for the party in the upcoming election with 27 per cent of 2019 SNP voters saying they would now vote for Labour.

In the 2019 General Election, the SNP took 45 per cent of the vote with 48 seats in the House of Commons in Westminster.

The Conservatives came in second winning 25 per cent of the vote and six seats and Labour finished third claiming 19 per cent of the vote and only a single Scottish seat.

\u200bRedfield and Wilton Strategies voting poll

This poll shows only 50 per cent of Scottish voters who backed SNP in 2019 said they would vote for the party in the upcoming election

Redfield and Wilton Strategies

Another major poll from YouGov projected that SNP’s total number of MPs would fall to 17 and Labour would become the largest party in Scotland with 34 seats.

Some 59 per cent of Scottish voters cited the NHS and the economy among the three most important issues that would determine how they vote in the general election.

The SNP were brought into the headlines last year after former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her husband, ex-party CEO Peter Murrell, were arrested in connection with ongoing investigations into the funding and finances of the SNP.

Nicola Sturgeon's home covered with blue tent

Police officers work at the home of Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell during an investigation into SNP's finances


Both were released without charge, but the ongoing investigation into the SNP's finances, involving a missing £600,000 referendum fund, damaged the party's reputation.

In May 2024, Humza Yousaf formally resigned as Scotland's first minister admitting that he had "paid the price" for the way he ended the controversial power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens.


John Swinney was elected as the SNP's new leader, however, Scots are split on whether he will be a good first minister.

A YouGov poll shows that 35 per cent of Scots think he will do a good job compared to 31 per cent who think the opposite.

The May 2024 poll also showed that most Scots (58 to 62 per cent) say they have little to no confidence in the SNP to make the right decision on the economy, health services, schools, police and climate change.

At one point, the Scottish National Party were the only show in town, but now the party is fighting hard against Labour to remain the largest party in Scotland.

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