In an exclusive interview with GB News this week, former Attorney General Geoffrey Cox talked of the danger of total Tory annihilation at the next election. He is right to worry: the Conservatives are trailing a whopping 23 points in the polls and some pollsters believe the Tories would be lucky to pick up 50-100 seats at the next election.
Cox is not the Tory MP now focused on mitigating losses in 2024 rather than winning. These MPs – who tend to be older and more experienced – remember what it’s like being in Opposition and aren’t too fond of the memories.
As veteran MP Edward Leigh reminded the 1922 committee last week, “your worst day in Government is better than your best day in Opposition”. They also are at pains to remind both their colleagues and the public of the difference between a narrow Tory loss and a total wipeout of the kind last seen in 1997.
Why? Because in their minds, there is a huge difference. With a strong opposition, a Government can pass important everyday legislation to keep the country turning, but would struggle to fundamentally change the cultural fabric of Britain.
In an exclusive interview with GB News this week, former Attorney General Geoffrey Cox talked of the danger of total Tory annihilation at the next election
PA
To Conservative MPs old enough to have been politically active during the early Blair years, this is a very important distinction indeed. Because of the size of Tony Blair’s majority in 1997, he was able to make major constitutional changes to the country which we are still living with nearly 30 years on.
The radical Human Rights Act, tabled by Blair in the first flush of his victory, is an apposite example. The Bill, which was designed to incorporate into UK law the rights contained in the European Convention on Human Rights, has historically been a thorn in the side of governments trying to stem the flow of illegal migration – and today is the reason the Rwanda scheme is still bogged down in Parliament.
Devolution, too, was a Blair baby – only possible because of the size of his first majority. Devolution still has its fervent supporters, but its critics argue that it has not delivered many of the fevered promises of the 1990s. And indeed, looking at the statistics, it is hard to argue that has raised living standards in the devolved areas or brought the country any closer together.
It is increasingly feeling as though Conservative MPs are on the verge of shrugging their shoulders and resigning themselves to a cataclysmic defeat. It will be up to the Coxes and the Leighs of the Party to remind their younger colleagues that it is still worth fighting – if only to hold Starmer’s feet to the fire if and when he tries to pull any Blairesque stunts.
Knocking on doors campaigning for a less than catastrophic Conservative defeat is hardly a glamorous way to spend the summer. But conservative-minded voters better hope that at least some Tory MPs are prepared to do it.