SHOCK map has Reform wiping out 10 Tory big beasts to win 40-seat majority - is YOUR seat turning light blue?

Nigel Farage: Local elections are an astonishing set of results for Reform UK - WATCH NOW

GB NEWS
James Saunders

By James Saunders


Published: 07/05/2025

- 12:17

Updated: 07/05/2025

- 13:29

With leadership contenders and former Prime Ministers all set to lose their seats, Reform UK says 'the writing is on the wall'

On Wednesday morning, Reform UK was handed a record-breaking polling lead.

Nigel Farage's party, fresh from a near-700-seat local elections landslide, was tipped by pollsters at YouGov to secure the votes of a staggering 29 per cent of Britons.


That represents a record high for Reform, beating even its Brexit Party iteration's heyday in June 2019 - when it touched 26 per cent after its barnstorming European elections swansong a month prior.

The last time the Tories polled so low in YouGov data came at the same time - just before Boris Johnson was selected as their leader.

Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage's party, fresh from a near-700-seat local elections landslide, was tipped by pollsters at YouGov to secure the votes of a staggering 29 per cent of Britons

GETTY

And if a General Election were to be held tomorrow, a GB News analysis of this morning's data makes for grim reading for the Conservatives - and could topple their "world's most successful party" title.

Wednesday's YouGov data had Britain's five largest parties polling as follows:

  • Reform UK - 29 per cent;
  • Labour - 22 per cent;
  • Conservatives - 17 per cent;
  • Liberal Democrats - 16 per cent;
  • Greens - 10 per cent.
Electoral Calculus map

MAPPED: All the seats which would change hands if the YouGov data rang true at a General Election - is YOURS one?

ELECTORAL CALCULUS

When run through Electoral Calculus's prediction map, which also considers Scotland, those figures would see:

  • Reform UK - 345 seats (and a 40-seat majority);
  • Labour - 143 seats;
  • Liberal Democrats - 71 seats;
  • SNP - 38 seats;
  • Conservatives - 23 seats.

Marking a precipitous fall from the Thatcher-era record seat count of 397 won in 1983, the Conservatives are projected to return fewer than two dozen MPs. That would bring the party to a low-water mark stretching back to 1754.

Of those, 10 big beasts - including current frontbenchers, former holders of the Great Offices of State and leaders past and present - would all lose their places in the Commons.

But who would lose, to whom would they lose, and where?

LATEST ON REFORM UK'S POLLING SURGE:

Kemi Badenoch

Serving Tory leader Kemi Badenoch would lose her grip on her North West Essex seat to Reform UK, the data suggests.

Badenoch, who in the lead-up to the May 1 local elections dismissed Reform as a "protest party", is now tipped to lose her minority-held constituency - in a veritable Tory heartland - to Nigel Farage's challengers.

Last year, Reform took home 7,668 votes in the seat - and while Electoral Calculus does not specify what her vote share would look like in a hypothetical General Election, it's clear the Conservative boss would not reclaim her seat in the Commons.

\u200bKemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch would lose her grip on her North West Essex seat to Reform UK

HOUSE OF COMMONS

Robert Jenrick

Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick, increasingly earmarked as a thorn in Reform's side, would be another projected casualty in Reform's electoral romp.

Badenoch, just days ago, dismissed claims that Jenrick could look to oust her as Tory chief.

She told GB News "I appointed Rob to be Shadow Justice Secretary. He is doing a great job. He's holding two-tier Keir's feet to the fire on justice. I want him to keep doing that."

But in a potential Reform surge, Jenrick's Newark constituency would be snatched from under his feet, with Nigel Farage's party overtaking both Labour and the Tories by tens of thousands of votes to gain another MP.

Rishi Sunak

It's not just Kemi Badenoch who could see her traditional Tory heartland seat turn turquoise.

Her predecessor at the head of the party, Rishi Sunak, now faces an ousting by Reform UK - which would once again overturn a five-digit vote deficit in Richmond & Northallerton on the path to Government.

His Yorkshire seat, once home turf to former leader William Hague, would see a non-Conservative MP take the reins for the first time since 1910.

James Cleverly

Close Sunak ally James Cleverly - who finished third in last year's Tory leadership contest to Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick - would also lose his seat.

Cleverly, who like Badenoch represents an Essex constituency, would be ousted by Reform UK.

Of the four MPs listed so far, the former Home, Foreign and Education Secretary is the only one to have seen Reform take back more than 10,000 votes in his seat last summer.

And if an election were held tomorrow, Cleverly would be ejected entirely.

Tory leadership finalists

All four Tory leadership finalists - and fifth- and sixth-placed Mel Stride and Priti Patel - would lose their seats

PA

Priti Patel

Another member of the Essex Tory contingent, Priti Patel, would slip behind Reform UK if YouGov's data rang true in a national vote.

When the Witham MP failed to progress in the Tory leadership race late last year, Reform spokeswoman Ann Widdecombe said she would be a welcome addition to the party's ranks.

But the Shadow Foreign Secretary and former Home Secretary is tipped for an ousting at the hands of Nigel Farage's party - which would storm past both the Conservatives and Labour to an electoral breakthrough, continuing a pattern seen in all five seats listed so far.

Suella Braverman

Suella Braverman, like Patel, has been earmarked to swap blue for turquoise in the past.

Her husband, Rael, has already made the switch.

But as things stand, the Hampshire-based hardliner ex-Home Secretary would lose out to Reform UK in Fareham and Waterlooville - a major coup for Farage's party in a decidedly non-traditional part of the country.

And in another breakthrough, her projected ousting would mark the first time in this list of 10 MPs that Reform overtakes three rival candidates to stake a claim to a seat.

Rael Braverman, Suella Braverman and Nigel Farage

Suella Braverman has been earmarked to swap blue for turquoise like her husband Rael (left) - but would lose out to Reform UK at a General Election

RAEL BRAVERMAN

Andrew Griffith

Practically next door to Braverman sits Andrew Griffith, Badenoch's Shadow Business Secretary.

Over in Arundel and South Downs, the outspoken ex-Science Minister enjoyed a sizeable lead at last summer's General Election - despite a 20 per cent slump.

But if Britons returned to the polls tomorrow, Griffith would - like Braverman - be caught up from three places behind by Reform UK, and lose his six-year hold on his Hampshire home turf.

Tom Tugendhat

Shortly before the local elections bore fruit for Farage's Reform, GB News was told by a self-acclaimed "true blue Tory" in Kent that he was "concerned" by the party's growing presence in Kent.

"Reform is going to absolutely wipe the floor here next week. There’s no doubt about it," a Reform candidate enthusiastically told GB News.

That ended up coming true - Reform now controls Kent County Council, and the "true blue" Conservative councillor lost his seat.

One top Tory whose seat sits in the Garden of England is former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat, who like Andrew Griffith, enjoyed a sizeable vote share over a fourth-placed Reform in 2024.

But now, 2024's fourth-placed Tory leadership contender would join his former competitors on the outside looking in - with Reform UK occupying his Tonbridge seat.

Mel Stride

Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride finished behind Tugendhat in last autumn's Tory leadership race.

The former Work & Pensions Secretary, who has represented Central Devon since 2010, retained his contstituency by a wafer-thin 61-vote lead last summer.

But in another in-road into the south of England by Reform UK, Nigel Farage's party would oust the current second-in-command on the Tory frontbenches - again, surging from fourth place to victory.

\u200bRishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Mel Stride

Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Mel Stride have all been tipped to lose out

PA

Jeremy Hunt

Jeremy Hunt, who since last summer has enjoyed a new lease of parliamentary life as a dedicated constituency MP, would be the final Tory big beast to fall in a hypothetical Reform surge.

Ex-Chancellor Hunt, who has held his Godalming and Ash - formerly South West Surrey - seat since 2005, would represent the second-most senior Tory to fall after Sunak.

But in a sign that Reform UK has not quite cracked Middle England yet, his seat would fall to another surging challenger: the Liberal Democrats.

Responding to this morning's polling, a Reform UK spokesman told GB News: "The writing is on the wall for the Conservative Party. They are a party in terminal decline.

"The results of last week's elections show that Reform UK has replaced the Conservatives as the real opposition to Labour in England, Scotland and Wales.

"The lesson for future elections is simple: if you vote Conservative, you will get Labour. By supporting the Conservatives, you split the Reform UK vote. If you vote Reform UK, you get Reform UK."

GB News has approached the Conservative Party for comment.