Nigel Farage's Local Elections victory coincided with a 10,000-strong membership boost which could bring Reform UK a step closer to overtaking Labour, new GB News analysis has revealed.
Reform UK now counts just over 230,000 Britons in its growing grassroots club, just 79,000 behind Labour's 309,000 signed-up support base.
The figure is now around 100,000 more than Kemi Badenoch's grassroots Tory backers, a milestone that resulted in a Boxing Day bust-up last Christmas.
Reform's latest wave of members saw around 450 join every day over the past 11 day period, with the overall figure jumping from 200,000 to 230,000 between February 9 and May 5.
Nigel Farage's turquoise tidal wave boosted his 'People's Army' by 10,000 - but when will Reform overtake Labour?
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Despite some fears of a membership revolt following Rupert Lowe's suspension, the tally has continued to trickle up since March.
And Reform UK remains convinced his members will play a pivotal role in propelling Reform UK to power in 2029.
Speaking ahead of the 2025 Local Elections, where Reform UK utilised its "People's Army" to shore up support across England, Farage suggested his grassroots supporters should look to emulate the campaign strategy adopted by the Liberal Democrats.
“There are many, many things the Lib Dems do that we need to model our party on,” Farage conceded.
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A chart of Reform UK's membership surge
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He added: “They're very, very good at delivering leaflets, knocking on doors. And boy, we've come a long way since the General Election, but we're not yet where the Lib Dems are.”
Research conducted by GB News reveals the exact date that Reform UK can expect to overtake Labour if its membership continues to grow at the same rate as it has over the past 37 days.
With Reform UK chasing down Labour's 79,000-strong membership lead, Farage will have to wait at least 281 days to reach his next milestone.
Such an estimate makes Reform UK's big moment likely to occur on February 10 next year, with some caveats needed for any unforeseen Labour surge.
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Nigel Farage's party now boasts a majority across 10 of the 23 councils up for grabsPAWhen Farage took over as Reform UK leader in June 2024, the populist party's membership stood at just 40,000 - putting it lower than the Greens.
However, Reform UK soon soared past the Liberal Democrats as an enormous boost saw the Brexit supremo celebrate an 100,000 milestone on November 28.
Farage quickly set his sights on quickly supplanting the Tories, with a huge Boxing Day row with Kemi Badenoch ensuing while Reform insiders watched on in glee.
Following the row, Reform's tally continued to grow and eventually hit 200,000 in early February.
Despite Lowe's suspension sparking rumours of mass resignations, the tracker only detected a slight dip before a campaign trail surge took Reform UK up to 220,000 just five-weeks before polls opened.
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Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer addresses an audience of Labour Party members and supporters during a rally at the Royal Horticultural Halls in central London
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Reform's rapid growth comes as the "Establishment" parties continue to battle with declining membership rates.
The Tories have experienced an enormous slump since attracting 2.8 million card-carrying members in the early 1950s.
The 2024 Conservative Party leadership race confirmed a grassroots base of just 131,680 - down from 200,000 when Boris Johnson steered a major bounce for the Tories across much of the Red Wall.
However, even at that point, the number of card-carrying Conservatives were still significantly down compared to the 250,000 who voted in the 2005 Tory leadership race and 328,000 eligible in 2001.
Meanwhile, Labour's high-point under Jeremy Corbyn - 564,000 - has taken an almighty hit.
After slipping below 400,000 in August 2024, Sir Keir Starmer has continued to oversee a drop - falling to just 309,000 in February this year.
