MAPPED: The 32 seats 'suddenly in play' that could parachute Nigel Farage into No10 as Reform faces 'critical test'

WATCH: Charlie Rowley looks at new polling which puts Nigel Farage's Reform UK as the largest party in Parliament

GB NEWS
James Saunders

By James Saunders


Published: 12/07/2025

- 06:00

It comes as new polling gives Reform a parliamentary majority of 28

Nigel Farage and Reform UK could be handed the keys to Downing Street thanks to a breakthrough in one key region of the country, pollsters project.

Top polling firm Survation ran an in-depth focus group in the West Midlands in June in a bid to find out whether Nigel Farage has what it takes to become the next prime minister for a Channel 4 documentary.


In Solihull - a large market town situated on the River Blythe - the pollsters brought together 10 participants aged 22-61, from a mix of occupational and ethnic backgrounds and political histories, including Labour switchers, Tory deserters, and a 2024 non-voter.

As Survation research executive Anna McHugh explained: "If Reform UK hopes to win seats or cement its place as the opposition, it will need to convince voters in places like the West Midlands, where our polling places them ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

Survation focus group

Survation ran an in-depth focus group in the West Midlands in June in a bid to find out whether Nigel Farage could be heading to No10

SURVATION/CHANNEL 4

"Constituencies like Conservative-held Solihull West and Shirley, and Labour-held Birmingham Ladywood, are among dozens of key marginals suddenly in play - winnable, but far from guaranteed."

"Every participant was open to voting Reform in the next general election, but none were fully decided," she added.

Does she have a point?

GB News has looked into the 32 key seats across the West Midlands that are at risk of swinging to Reform UK.

Nationally, aggregate polling has revealed that Labour's support has collapsed from around 34 to 24 per cent since the General Election.

At the same time, Reform UK's has risen from nearly 15 to 29 per cent.

That means that a seat would need a swing of just over 12 per cent to switch to Reform. In the West Midlands alone, there are 32 such seats up for grabs.

READ MORE GBN MEMBERSHIP STORIES ON REFORM UK:

Nigel Farage

Reform UK's aggregate polling has risen from nearly 15 to 29 per cent since the General Election

HOUSE OF COMMONS

In Solihull, McHugh said: "Farage strikes a chord with undecided voters, but they don't fully trust him. They find themselves in an unlikely place in his Marmite effect: somewhere between love and hate.

"Our voters felt a mix of admiration for Reform UK's focus on ordinary people, its break from the stiffness of mainstream politics and its simple, tangible economic messaging, with anxiety about the party's divisiveness and doubts over whether it can deliver.

"It's a tough call. They've tried the Conservatives and they've tried Labour, and neither worked out.

"Though their reservations about Reform UK remain, so do their frustrations with the alternatives."

Her words came ahead of fresh polling from Techne UK today - which, when run through Electoral Calculus's MRP prediction, would return a parliamentary majority of 28 for Reform.

Notable Labour MPs who would lose their West Midlands seats to Reform include Jess Phillips and Pat McFadden - with Shabana Mahmood losing out to an independent candidate.

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Here is the full seat breakdown, ordered by smallest to largest swing required to unseat a potential candidate:

  1. Dudley
  2. Cannock Chase
  3. Warwickshire North & Bedworth
  4. Tipton & Wednesbury
  5. Tamworth
  6. Walsall & Bloxwich
  7. Aldridge-Brownhills
  8. Nuneaton
  9. Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North
  10. Bromsgrove
  11. Stoke-on-Trent North
  12. Halesowen
  13. Wyre Forest
  14. Newcastle-under-Lyme
  15. Stoke-on-Trent Central
  16. Meriden & Solihull East
  17. Kingswinford & Staffordshire South
  18. Birmingham Northfield
  19. Staffordshire Moorlands
  20. Burton and Uttoxeter
  21. Solihull West & Shirley
  22. Wolverhampton North East
  23. Telford
  24. Birmingham Erdington
  25. Droitwich & Evesham
  26. Worcestershire West
  27. Stourbridge
  28. The Wrekin
  29. Hereford & Herefordshire South
  30. Stafford
  31. Stoke-on-Trent South
  32. Kenilworth & Southam

No walk in the park

As McHugh points out, these marginals will be a "critical test for Reform UK’s broadness of appeal".

Farage's ex-adviser Gawain Towler describes this problem as having "width not depth".

He explained to GB News that Reform has "support everywhere, but it's not deep enough to win a first-past-the-post election", adding: "We can shovel up the millions of votes, but unless we learn to focus effectively, that does not necessarily translate into hundreds of seats.

He highlighted how the quirks of Britain's electoral system meant Reform only won five MPs despite coming second to Labour in nearly 100 constituencies at the last general election.

However, with Reform neck and neck with Tories and Labour in the polls, Nigel Farage is in a much stronger position 12 months later.