The US-Israeli attacks on Iran have not only resulted in a regional war across the Middle East but are also likely to have an impact on the British socio-political landscape.
While the regime in Iran can be best described as a Shi’ite military-theocratic dictatorship, the overwhelming majority of British Muslims are Sunni.
According to a March 2024 report published by the Institute for the Impact of Faith in Life (IIFL), 84 per cent of British Muslims are Sunni (a mixture of non-denominational, Deobandi, Barelvi, Salafi, and other denominations).
The proportion of Shia Muslims as part of the wider British Muslim population is in the region of seven to eight per cent, with the remainder in the survey belonging to a non-Sunni, non-Shia sect or preferring not to report being part of a particular denomination.
While there are Sunni-Shia sectarian tensions in the UK, there is existing evidence which suggests that, despite the majority being Sunni, there will be considerable British Muslim opposition to the US-Israeli attacks on Iran (Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion).
A March 2020 report found that British Muslims had notably warmer attitudes towards the Islamic Republic of Iran when compared to how favourably they viewed the United States and the State of Israel.
Attitudes towards Iran were especially favourable among British Muslims who were less integrated in terms of their friendship network.
It is not unreasonable to suggest that while a decent number of British Muslims will not necessarily be hugely supportive of the regime in Iran, they will oppose the military action taken against the West Asian country by American President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyu, which has included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The Green Party’s historic victory in the recent by-election in the Greater Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton, where British Muslim voters flexed their political muscle to punish Labour and block Reform UK, had a particular emphasis on foreign policy.
Regime change in Iran would put the Gorton and Denton by-election result on rocket boosters - Rakib Ehsan | Getty Images
In one Urdu-language video promoting the Greens, there was an image of former UK foreign secretary David Lammy next to Netanyahu, with the UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer standing next to his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi (who has been accused of spearheading the fiery rise of Hindutva ideology against India’s Muslim minorities).
Considering the Green Party’s anti-war tendencies and anti-imperial politics, it is no surprise that its leader, Zack Polanski, has called on Starmer to withdraw permission for the US to use UK military bases to launch airstrikes in Iran, calling for Parliament to be given a vote on any UK involvement.
It is likely to command the support of many British Muslims who are traditionally sceptical of the transatlantic alliance (especially after the 2003 invasion of Iraq) and do not wish for the UK to be involved in what is ultimately a US-Israeli military campaign.
As this full-blown regional war rages on in the Middle East, it is far too early to tell whether the Trump-Netanyahu goal of regime change in Iran will materialise.
But it does present an opportunity for anti-establishment political parties such as the Greens to consolidate their support among British Muslim voters in the aftermath of the Gorton and Denton by-election.
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