REVEALED: How Reform's first defences fell in 24 hours - but to whom? Inside the plot twist no one saw coming

The losses will come as a surprise to Reform, which did make a gain on the night in Tower, Suffolk, over the Conservatives.

Tory MP Robert Jenrick, whose seat is in Newark, tweeted following the result: "Conservative GAIN from Reform for the first time. Thank you to the people of Newark for putting your trust in us once again and to our brilliant team."

Conservative pollster Lord Hayward explained how he was "surprised" that Reform lost both elections.

He told GB News: "The first was that they hadn't won the council by-elections that I'd expected them to, but it still came as a surprise that they lost both.

"I thought they might lose one. I didn't know which one, but I was surprised when they lost both."

Having to send voters back to vote for Reform again, "did not have a good look" for the party, Lord Hayward said, adding: "They started off with a disadvantage."

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Lessons to be learned 

Lord Hayward explained: "I wouldn't say it was a broader shift until either the polls had continued the slight downturn for a few more weeks, or they had continued not to win certain by-elections, which I would have expected them to.

Party insiders are nonetheless mindful of the formidable challenge ahead. Due to the quirks of Britain's electoral system, Reform only won five MPs despite coming second to Labour in nearly 100 constituencies.

Farage's ex-adviser Gawain Towler describes the party's main stumbling block as having "depth, not width".

He explained to GB News that Reform has "support everywhere, but it's not deep enough to win a first-past-the-post election", adding: "We can shovel up the millions of votes, but unless we learn to focus effectively, that does not necessarily translate into hundreds of seats."

Polling also shows party is also at risk of preaching to the converted. A recent YouGov poll indicates that 90 per cent of individuals who voted for Reform UK in the 2024 general election are considering voting for the party again in the future.

The level of loyalty among Reform UK voters is much higher than compared to other parties, which received more wavering support.

However, voting patterns have barely changed since 2019, with Labour's Red Wall voters never returning after Boris Johnson's historic win that year.

Reform leads the Westminster voting intention in Survation’s latest poll, taking 27 per cent of the vote share (unchanged from last month’s poll), ahead of Labour on 26 per cent and the Conservatives on 19 per cent.