A new poll projects Reform UK could scoop the most votes at next May's Welsh Parliament election - but Nigel Farage may still face a huge stumbling block on his march to power, a GB News analysis has found.
More In Common's latest poll forecasts a turquoise tidal wave sweeping across the country, putting Reform UK on 28 per cent of the vote.
Plaid Cymru is nipping at Farage's heels on 26 per cent of the vote.
Meanwhile, Labour's stranglehold over Wales, which dates back to 1922, appears to be loosening, with the voting intention in the Senedd trailing behind on 23 per cent.
The polling, of 883 people carried out between June 18 and July 3, also found less than half (48 per cent) of Labour’s 2024 voters would back the party in a Senedd election if it were held today.
The Tories also continue to flounder, with support for the party collapsing to just 10 per cent.
Too good to be true?
While the figures look optimistic for Reform UK, such a result would not guarantee the insurgent party power.
Reform is projected to secure 33 seats in the Senedd, while the Conservatives are expected to have six, leaving a potential centre-right coalition falling short of the 49 seats needed to form a government.
However, a Plaid Cymru-Labour tie-up could meet the threshold, with a projected 30 and 25 seats, respectively.
Reform is projected to secure 33 seats in the Senedd, while the Conservatives are expected to have six,
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New data suggests Reform UK could scoop the most votes in next May's Welsh Parliament Election
GettyReform UK chairman David Bull has signalled that his party must be complacent north of the border, declaring that Scotland and Wales were "right up there" in terms of the party's thinking as he turns his attention to next year's elections.
Bull plans to embark on a UK-wide tour to connect directly with Reform's 230,000-strong members.
"It's a huge undertaking but we’re definitely making waves," Bull said.
With pollsters talking up Reform's electoral prospects in the Senedd, Sir Keir Starmer and Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan went on the attack at the recent Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, with the Prime Minister accusing Farage of "taking people for fools".
Morgan, meanwhile, riled up Reform's loyalists by claiming the party poses a “threat” to the Welsh way of life.
Reform UK chairman David Bull said he wants Wales 'right up there' in the party's thinking
REFORM UKA Reform source recently explained why Farage is making Wales his “top” priority.
“After 26 years of Labour running Wales,” the insider said, adding: “What do we have to show for it?“
They told GB News: "Record-breaking NHS waiting lists, collapsing education standards, a stagnant economy, and communities that feel ignored and let down.
“Labour’s priorities are all wrong, more interested in pushing woke ideology and vanity projects than fixing the basics.”
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