Caerphilly has pretty much always voted Labour. Since 1918, both in Westminster and Cardiff Bay, Labour politicians have been a shoo-in to represent the Welsh town. However, as voters prepare to go to the polls next Thursday, the birthplace of iconic comedian Tommy Cooper is undergoing a sea change.
Reform UK and Plaid Cymru posters have been put up across the constituency, with Labour's lacklustre campaign struggling to cut through. Unlike much of the English Red Wall, Brexit-backing corners of Wales were not overly tempted by Boris Johnson's offer in 2019.
But Nigel Farage has always managed to court considerable support in the area, albeit never enough to end Labour's grip on its staunchest heartland. As voters turn against Sir Keir Starmer and the Welsh Government, Reform UK senses an opportunity to pull off the unthinkable.
"Wales is very different [compared] to lots of parts of the United Kingdom because we’ve had 26 years of a Labour Government," Reform's Caerphilly by-election candidate Llyr Powell told GB News.
"They’ve been running our health service, they’ve run our local services, they’ve been in charge of our education system and on all metrics, they are failing Wales." Inside Reform UK's campaign headquarters, insiders are particularly delighted about one campaign poster that might best summarise this by-election battle.
A photo of the Prime Minister is accompanied by the capitalised words "MISSING", with the poster adding: "Last seen on another foreign trip, everywhere but Caerphilly." Sir Keir's decision to skip campaigning in Caerphilly is perhaps a slight admission from Welsh Labour that even a cameo appearance could send support tumbling down even further.
But Welsh Labour MPs continue to pound the streets of the former mining town. Jo Stevens, Carolyn Harris, Anna McMorrin, Alex Barros-Curtis, Gerald Jones, Stephen Kinnock, Chris Evans and Chris Bryant have all paid a visit to Caerphilly.
Reform UK insiders told GB News that ex-Labour voters have been switching in their droves in the once staunchest of heartland wards. But there are also growing concerns from inside Labour's campaign office that the progressive vote is breaking for Plaid Cymru.
Nigel Farage has his eyes set of Caerphilly | PAA recent Survation by-election poll found that Reform UK had jumped from just two per cent in 2021 to 42 per cent, narrowly ahead of Plaid Cymru, which received a 10-point boost to hit 38 per cent.
Meanwhile, Labour's support has collapsed from 46 per cent to 12 per cent. Such a drop would represent Labour's worst performance in Caerphilly since it first contested the then-seat of East Glamorganshire in 1910.
Speaking to GB News about the drastic change, Survation's chief executive Damian Lyons Lowe explained that the dramatic shift comes down to broader disaffection with Britain's two main parties.
"The main story is that Labour's 2021 base has collapsed," Mr Lyons Lowe said. "There's just a third of their base remaining. A third have gone to Plaid and a quarter to Reform."
The polling guru pointed out that Reform is performing particularly strongly with Caerphilly's Brexit-backing residents. Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru, which has always had a strong base in the town, is picking up additional support from younger voters.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
Richard Tunnicliffe is campaigning on local issues, while Sir Keir Starmer keeps clear of Caerphilly
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However, campaigners on the ground do not anticipate Labour's support falling to as low as 12 per cent. "I think Labour's vote is being understated," a rival campaign source told GB News.
"This place has always been Labour. There's been a massive shift, but some will stay loyal."
Labour candidate Richard Tunnicliffe, a Berkshire-born ex-publisher, is looking to squeeze himself back into the race by addressing two issues: Reform and the library.
However, his proposal to keep the library open raised eyebrows after it was revealed that Caerphilly's Labour-run council had been behind the decision. "Labour's embarrassing themselves," one Reform activist said.
Welsh Labour has conceded that it will be a tough task to cling onto Caerphilly, despite first snatching the seat in 1918. "We’re not shying away from the fact this has been a difficult campaign at a difficult time for governments both here and in London," a Welsh Labour source said.
"We’ve spoken to tens of thousands of voters since the start of this by-election and we’re hearing those frustrations on the doorsteps.
"But there’s also real concern about letting Reform in and bringing their divisive brand of politics with them."
LATEST FROM WALES:
Plaid Cymru and Reform UK appear to be vying for the top two places in Caerphilly
|GB NEWS
Following Sir Keir’s conference speech, Labour has been ramping up its attacks against Reform, including in Caerphilly. However, Welsh Labour had been forced to remove one attack advert after being threatened with legal action by Reform UK.
The poster tried to connect Mr Powell with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Mr Powell worked as a caseworker to ex-Brexit Party MEP Nathan Gill. Mr Gill, who last month pleaded guilty to taking bribes from Russia, described his former boss as "traitorous".
The NHS has also been identified by Labour as a weak spot for Reform, with campaigners pouncing on Mr Farage’s now-decade-old comments about considering an insurance-style model. "It’s a viscous little campaign by the left," a Reform veteran said. Mr Powell believes Labour’s lines of attack reek of desperation.
"It’s been one of the most desperate campaigns I’ve ever seen by the Labour Party," Mr Powell said. "They’ve got nothing to offer the people of Caerphill, the people of Wales.
"Their record speaks for itself and they’re just trying to smear my name as someone who dares to challenge them and call them out for their record."
Lindsay Whittle first stood in Caerphilly in 1983
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However, Plaid Cymru has also been on the attack. Parking his tanks squarely on Labour’s lawns, Lindsay Whittle is adamant that he is best-placed to hoover up the anti-Reform vote. Mr Whittle, who first contested the constituency in the 1983 General Election, also used this week’s by-election hustings to swipe at Mr Powell on both immigration and Russia.
But JL Partners co-founder James Johnson suggested attacks against Reform’s personnel might be somewhat blunted. "I just think that voters believe all politicians and all parties have scandals like this," Mr Johnson told GB News.
"They don’t feel that Farage’s party is any more susceptible than anyone else. These voters are voting Reform because they basically feel like they have no alternative. They’ve been, in their eyes, failed by Labour, they’ve been failed by the Tories and they now feel that if they’re going to vote at all, Reform is the option."
And Reform has also come under fire for its campaigning in Caerphilly, with Mr Powell being accused of misleading voters over the Welsh Government’s £55million Nation of Sanctuary scheme.
LATEST ON LABOUR:
Llyr Powell discussed the Caerphilly by-election campaign with GB News | GB NEWSAhead of polling day, Plaid Cymru leader appeared to look to court Unionist progressive voters by dialling down his commitment to an independence poll.
The push might help bolster Plaid’s message of being the main anti-Reform party ahead of the Welsh Parliament Election next May, especially with a strong performance in Caerphilly.
For the Prime Minister, losing Caerphilly paints a gloomy picture ahead of a crunch test. Reform and Plaid have already been polling neck-and-neck across Wales, leaving Labour to languish in a distant third.
And it could be an even tougher night for Labour, with a drastic drop in support in Scotland and an expected revolt across English local authorities. But Welsh Labour would also face an almost immediate struggle.
If Mr Powell becomes Reform’s second MS, or Mr Whittle returns to Cardiff Bay after his decade-long hiatus, Labour will need to look to make more concessions to get its Budget over the line. Having been elected with a minority, it could become a golden opportunity for Plaid and Labour to consolidate a shared plan ahead of a potential anti-Reform alliance.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party faces a doomed task on Thursday. Despite being the official opposition in Wales, Reform’s rise has all but eliminated any inroads for the Tories.
Caerphilly first voted for Labour in 1918
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"They [MSs] haven’t gone to Caerphilly," one Tory source told GB News. "They’ve been too busy trying to keep my own seat."
The Conservatives, boosted by a post-vaccine "Boris bounce", managed to secure 16 seats in 2021.
While the Senedd is expanding from 60 to 96 members, many campaigners now believe the Tories could collapse to just three MSs. The collapse of the Tories comes as a boost to Reform.
While tribal aversion to Margaret Thatcher prevented Boris Johnson from winning large swathes of Leave-voting Wales, Mr Farage’s turquoise tsunami might yet snatch the once-safe Labour heartlands.
The Reform UK leader has been building this operation for some time. From seven Senedd members with Ukip in 2016 to the Brexit Party topping the Welsh polls in the 2019 EU Parliament Election, Mr Farage had already secured a foothold.
But the Clacton MP hopes to go one step further next Thursday. By winning his first-ever seat in Wales, which would ironically be the last-ever constituency seat up for grabs in Cardiff Bay, Mr Farage can prepare for his biggest campaign as Reform’s leader yet: controlling a country.
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