'It's serious!' John Curtice issues dire polling warning to Tories as Nigel Farage snatches millions of ex-Conservative voters

Speaking at a Demos fringe event on Sunday, Sir John explained that the Conservatives find themselves in "unprecedented territory" given the rise of Reform UK.

He told a packed fringe meeting: "Oh, the Conservative Party potentially loses its role as the thinking and governing party of the UK. I mean, I think it is that serious a possibility."

In a warning about the threat posed by Reform UK, Sir John added: "But let’s call a spade a spade — they’ve already got one MP, a number of ex-MPs, and one or two members of devolved bodies.

"I’ve heard one analysis of the local elections that said more than half of those elected as Reform councillors in May were former members of the Conservative Party.

"They’re not just taking voters — they’re beginning to take senior volunteers, activists, and probably money too.

"And that’s why this needs to be turned around sooner rather than later. Because the risk the Conservatives face is that if this carries on for another two years or so, the money and the ambitious will follow the polls."

The veteran pollster also put to bed comparisons between Reform UK and the SDP-Liberal Alliance of the 1980s.

Sir John explained: "It’s already the case that Reform have now been ahead in the opinion polls for longer than the SDP–Liberal Alliance ever were — they’ve been ahead for what, six or seven months now?"

"And of course, at the end of the day, the point is that for this party — Reform — the challenge is obvious. But more broadly, the challenge is also coming from the Greens. That’s what Labour have to worry about, as well as the Liberal Democrats still being significant players.

"So we’ve now got this fractured five-party system, which means that the share of the vote you need to come first is much lower. But it is still the biggest challenge our conventional party politics has ever faced."

Reform UK has opened up an unbroken lead in the opinion polls since April, extending its advantage over Labour to 13 per cent in More in Common's latest survey.

However, the Tory Party continues to drop after it was confounded to its worst General Election result since 1906 last year, securing just 18 per cent support in the same survey.

Labour has witnessed a similar drop to the Tories, with voters punishing Sir Keir Starmer for a series of controversial policy announcements.

Reform has also managed to transfer its opinion poll support at the ballot box, winning hundreds of council seats and snatching Runcorn & Helsby from Labour in May.

In contrast, the Liberal-SDP Alliance surged from 25 per cent to 50 per cent in the nine months after the Gang of Four defected.

However, the new group's time at the top was short-lived, with the Tories recovering to hold pole position from early 1982 and into the 1983 General Election.

Sir John's warning about the rise of Reform also comes as Nigel Farage continues to welcome prominent Conservatives into his fold.

With Reform UK's support more than doubling across the country since last July, Danny Kruger defected from the Tory Party last month.

A total of 17 former Tory MPs have also switched allegiances, including ex-Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries and former Conservative Party Chairman Sir Jake Berry.

Despite the Tories continuing to raise more money than Reform UK, Sir John's warning comes as an ever-increasing number of Conservative donors flirt with backing Mr Farage.

Mark Gallagher, who gave Mrs Badenoch £2,000 for her leadership campaign last October, has left the Tories to support Reform UK.

Meanwhile, 54-year-old former Tory donor Bassim Haidar confirmed earlier this year that he intends to make a £1million donation.

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