US economy 'heading towards recession' in blow to Donald Trump after 'weak' job data
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A recession is defined as happening when a country's economy experiences two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth
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The US is "heading towards recession" due to President Donald Trump's handing of the economy, according to economists.
America's labour market has delivered its weakest performance in years, with employers adding only 22,000 positions in August while unemployment climbed to 4.3 per cent.
This is the first jobs report since President Trump controversially dismissed Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
Today's figures fell far short of the 75,000 jobs economists had anticipated, marking a sharp deterioration from July's revised 79,000 gain.
Economists warn the US is 'heading towards recession' after today's job figures
|GETTY / BLS / CHAT GPT
Mr Trump sacked Ms McEntarfer, baselessly claiming she had "faked" employment statistics following a series of downward revisions that showed average monthly job creation of just 35,000 between May and July.
The August employment data revealed hiring had decelerated dramatically from earlier expectations, with initial forecasts ranging from zero to 144,000 new positions.
July's job creation was revised upwards to 79,000, whilst June's figures were adjusted to show a 13,000 decline rather than the previously reported 14,000 gain.
The performance extends a pattern of weakening labour market conditions, with hiring having shifted to what economists describe as "stall-speed".
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Monthly job creation has plummeted from last year's average of 168,000, according to KPMG senior economist Kenneth Kim.
The unemployment rate's increase from 4.2 per cent represents the first time since the pandemic that jobless Americans outnumber available positions.
Mr Trump dismissed Friday's figures at a White House dinner on Thursday, claiming the "real numbers" would emerge "in a year from now".
William Waitrowski has assumed the role on BLS commissioner on interim basis, while Trump has selected EJ Antoni from the conservative Heritage Foundation as his permanent nominee.
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Mr Antoni, who has authored opinion pieces criticising the BLS and even proposed suspending the monthly employment report, awaits Senate confirmation.
Economists across the political spectrum have questioned Antoni's qualifications for the position.
Analysts attribute the hiring slowdown to President Trump's extensive import tariffs and restrictive immigration measures, which have curtailed the available workforce.
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How have US payrolls changed in recent years?
|BLS / EY-Parthenon
The duties have pushed America's average tariff rate to its highest point since 1934, creating uncertainty that has forced businesses to shelve expansion plans.
"Job growth usually only weakens like this when we're headed for a recession," warned Skanda Amarnath, executive director at Employ America.
He noted that accounting for revisions, quarterly job growth has fallen to just 37,000 monthly.
The weak employment data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates at its September 16-17 meeting, having maintained them between 4.25 and 4.50 per cent since December.