Some seven million state pensioners in receipt of an additional benefit are in line to miss out on the triple lock payment uplift from April 2026, according to concerning new analysis.
These older retirees will experience reduced uplifts on the state earnings-related pension Scheme (SERPS) due to the structure of their pension arrangements.
The triple lock mechanism guarantees annual state pension increases based on whichever is highest: inflation, wage growth, or 2.5 percent.
Current wage growth figures stand at five per cent, which would increase the full new state pension by £599 to £12,572 annually from April.
Millions at risk of missing out on a state pension triple lock boost, analysis warns
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Approximately 8.4 million retirees on the old state pension would see their yearly income reach £9,634.
However, 6.9 million of these older retirees receive additional earnings-related pension payments, commonly called Serps, which increase solely based on inflation rates, The Telegraph estimates.
With July's inflation figure at 3.8 percent, these pensioners will receive approximately three-quarters of the uplift on the earnings-related portion of their pension.
This creates a substantial gap where older pensioners could lose hundreds of pounds yearly compared to younger retirees. The final increase amount will be confirmed in October, based on September's inflation data and average wage growth from May through July.
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Older Britons are worried about the future of the state pension triple lock | PAExperts have raised concerns about concealed poverty affecting pensioners, despite apparent state pension increases.
Steve Webb, a former pensions minister now partnering at pension consultants LCP, stated: "It often comes as a surprise to people that the different elements of their state pension can rise by different amounts each year.
"The additional state pension, often called Serps, has always been linked to inflation, whereas the old basic state pension has benefited from a more generous formula since 2011.
"Next April, the additional state pension will simply be linked to inflation as usual, but the basic pension will rise by the higher of inflation or wages growth – and until October, we will not know for sure which will be the key number."
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He explained that whilst the additional state pension has always tracked inflation, the old basic pension has benefited from more generous calculations since 2011.
Becky O'Connor, the director of PensionsBee warned: "There is a hidden layer of pension poverty, and the majority of pensioners who rely on basic state pension are susceptible to. Headline increases to the new state pension hide the reality for millions."
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that state pension costs could reach £200billion by 2073, driven by increased life expectancy and triple lock commitments.
As it stands, the state pension age will increase from 66 to 67 by 2028 and reach 68 by 2046. Analysts have called on the Government to consider raising the retirement age to as high as 70 to bring down costs.
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Steve Webb is a partner at pension consultants LCP and was pensions minister from 2010 to 2015 | LCPJack Carmichael, an associate at consultants Barnett Waddingham, cautioned that mounting expenses might force workers to delay retirement until age 80 or face National Insurance contribution increases of 50 per cent by the 2070s.
Analysts warn that these projections underscore the financial pressures created by an ageing population and generous pension guarantees.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is already under significant pressure to introduce significant policy adjustments to maintain system sustainability.
It should be noted those in receipt of Serps will still be able to claim the basic state pension, as well as be potentially available for Pension Credit which is also awarded a triple lock boost.