Around 453,000 British pensioners living abroad will not receive next year's State Pension rise under the Triple Lock.
The increase could be between 4.6 per cent and five per cent, worth around £551 annually to those in the UK.
State pension could rise by more than £550 next year as the Government’s Triple Lock ensures earnings growth outpaces inflation. Analysis from financial experts at Broadstone suggests the annual payment could reach around £12,524 if wages continue to rise at the current 4.6 per cent rate.
Even if earnings growth slows, September’s projected four per cent inflation would still lift the pension by roughly £480, taking it to £12,452 a year from April 2026. The rise could also push some pensioners into paying income tax due to the frozen threshold.
Pensioners should watch these figures closely, as the final increase will depend on the latest earnings and inflation data. However, retirees in countries without reciprocal social security agreements - including Canada and Australia - will be excluded from annual upratings, with their pensions frozen at the level first received on emigration.
Campaign group End Frozen Pensions warns that nearly half of those affected survive on just £65 a week or less.
Some infact live on as little as £20, despite paying full National Insurance contributions before leaving the UK, with the group finding that 86 per cent of expats were unaware of the freeze before they moved abroad.
Second World War veteran Anne Puckridge, aged 100, has supported the campaign and urged Parliament to end the policy.
More than 100,000 frozen pensioners live in Canada, where campaigners hope bilateral talks could prompt reform.
By contrast, British retirees in the EU and US continue to receive full annual increases in line with those in the UK.
Expats look set to miss out.
| GETTYFor those at home, the Triple Lock uplift could still bring complications - with the personal tax allowance of £12,570 pushing up pension income and causing more retirees to pay tax.
The new State Pension is projected to reach £12,524 annually, leaving many pensioners close to the threshold.
Any extra private income, workplace pensions or savings interest could create tax liabilities, as HMRC forecasts that 8.7 million pensioners will pay income tax in 2025/26.
That is up 420,000 compared with 2024/25 and 1.85 million more than a decade earlier.
Campaigners argue that the treatment of overseas pensioners amounts to discrimination.
| GETTY / YOUTUBE / INTERNATIONAL LIVINGDavid Brooks, Head of Policy at Broadstone, an independent pensions consultancy firm, said: "Another significant increase to the State Pension now looks inevitable given the strong growth in average earnings and rising inflation."
He added: "Frozen allowances mean many retirees will not feel the full benefit of the Triple Lock."
The Treasury will confirm the official increase in the Autumn Budget, following wage data on September 16 and inflation figures in October.
The figures highlight growing divides in retirement income, with expats left behind and UK pensioners facing new tax bills.
Campaigners argue that the treatment of overseas pensioners amounts to discrimination.
They stress that retirees who have paid National Insurance throughout their working lives should not be penalised for living abroad.
Groups representing frozen pensioners say Britain’s stance contrasts with other developed countries.
Australia and Canada have repeatedly called for bilateral agreements but talks have stalled.
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The figures highlight growing divides in retirement income.
| PAThey also say it also puts pressure on foreign governments and charities to support older Britons.
Petitions to Parliament have gathered tens of thousands of signatures but have yet to spark reform.
Retiree groups insist the next Budget is a critical opportunity to finally address the issue, and provide the support that many will feel they need.
Rachel Reeves will have to manage spending stringently in the forthcoming budget in order to help improve public finances.