Pubs expected to take brutal sales hit as Dry January compounds industry misery

Pubs, bars and restaurants, where alcohol accounts for a large share of revenue, are among the hardest affected.

The sector already faces a difficult trading period after peak demand between late November and New Year, but analysts say Dry January has deepened the seasonal slump.

Malcolm Purinton, an assistant teaching professor of history at Northeastern University who specialises in brewing history and trade, said the downturn has become increasingly pronounced.

“The sober part, the completely dry, does have a marked effect on sales,” he said.

“That decline is noticeably worse than it used to be in the United States and Western Europe.”

While traditional alcohol sales have fallen, the non‑alcoholic drinks market has surged.

Sales of alcohol‑free beer have risen by more than 30 per cent year on year, with January now the peak month for many zero‑alcohol products.

Brands such as Athletic Brewing, Heineken 0.0 and Guinness 0.0 have gained popularity as producers improve taste and quality.

Retailers and venues have adapted quickly.

Supermarkets have expanded shelf space for alcohol‑free options, off‑licences have broadened their ranges, and specialist online retailers report record January sales.

Pubs and bars now offer dedicated alcohol‑free menus, zero‑proof cocktails and a wider selection of non‑alcoholic beers and spirits, reflecting shifting customer expectations.

Non‑alcoholic spirits, hop water and functional drinks have all seen rising demand as consumers look for alternatives that fit social occasions without alcohol.

Research suggests the impact of Dry January often lasts beyond the month, with more than half of participants continuing to drink less afterwards.

Younger adults appear especially receptive: a 2023 study found 75 per cent of Gen Z adults aged 21 to 24 were at least somewhat likely to take part.

Dry January is now firmly embedded in the hospitality calendar — but its roots are far more modest.

The campaign began with a personal decision by Emily Robinson, who gave up alcohol in January 2011 while training for her first half marathon.

After finding the experience transformative, she joined Alcohol Change UK and proposed turning her challenge into a national initiative.

The charity launched Dry January in 2013, attracting around 4,000 participants in its first year.

By 2020, more than 4 million people across the UK reported taking part, and similar campaigns have since spread internationally.

What began as a single fitness experiment has evolved into a global movement — and a defining pressure point for Britain’s pubs every January.