MPs have been warned Britain could lose as many as 540 pubs in 2026 after the Commons approved an inflation-linked increase to alcohol duty.
The forecast, issued by UKHospitality, comes amid signs pub closures have continued at a relentless pace throughout the past year.
According to analysis by tax specialists Ryan, one pub closed permanently every single day across England and Wales in 2025.
MPs from Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems have all voiced concerns about the long-term sustainability of local pubs, even as the Government pressed ahead with its Finance Bill, implementing measures announced in the Chancellor’s Budget.
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The pub industry has been grappling with what MPs described as a punishing combination of rising costs over recent years.
Publicans are facing higher employer national insurance contributions, increased minimum wage requirements, rising energy bills and growing business rates liabilities.
The alcohol duty rise, which is due to come into force on February 1, has been described by industry figures as another significant cost for businesses already operating on tight margins.
Shadow Treasury Minister James Wild said the Government was “layering costs upon costs” and warned the approach risked accelerating closures across the hospitality sector.
MPs have warned that Britain looks set to lose 540 pubs in 2026
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He argued pubs were being disproportionately affected by fiscal decisions which failed to take account of their role in local economies and communities.
New workers’ rights legislation has also added complexity for landlords attempting to manage staffing costs while keeping venues open.
Labour MP Jacob Collier, who represents Burton and Uttoxeter, told the Commons years of mounting pressures had “left many venues operating on very low margins, if any at all”.
He said pubs in his constituency were finding it increasingly difficult to absorb additional costs without passing them on to customers.
His Labour colleague Gareth Snell highlighted what he described as extreme increases in business rates faced by some operators.
One brewer in his constituency had seen its business rates rise by 450 per cent, as he called for ministers to deliver a “realistic, workable solution” to prevent further closures.
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Government have been urged to protect pubs as a cultural staple of British life
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Liberal Democrat MP Calum Miller said pubs across his Bicester and Woodstock constituency had already shut their doors in recent years.
He warned closures were depriving towns and villages of a “key institution that brings the community together”.
Conservative veteran Sir Edward Leigh raised concerns about the impact of proposed reductions to drink-driving limits on rural pubs.
He said: “The Government has to understand that the rural pub is in real danger for these alcohol limits.”
Treasury minister Lucy Rigby sought to reassure MPs during Tuesday’s debate, stating that the Government wanted pubs to “thrive”.
Ms Rigby said ministers were committed to working with the sector to identify appropriate forms of support.
She defended the alcohol duty increase, arguing that extending the freeze would mainly benefit supermarkets and off-licences rather than pubs.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham also weighed in on the issue, calling for reform of the business rates system.
Mr Burnham said rebalancing rates could deliver “relief for the high street and particularly pubs”.
One pub shut every single day last year, leading to some pubs banning Labour MPs
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Further pressures are expected later this year, with drinks giant Diageo confirming price increases from April, meaning Guinness looks set to rise by around 4p per pint, while Smirnoff Vodka will go up by 13p per bottle.Industry figures have warned that such rises may further squeeze pubs already struggling to absorb higher operating costs.The British Beer & Pub Association has reported that more than 15,000 pubs have closed across the UK since 2000.
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