Bank of England issues update for anyone with a mortgage amid Middle East tension

The update comes from the Bank’s Money and Credit January 2026 statistical release, which covers broad money and credit, lending to individuals and lending to businesses.

According to the latest data released on Monday, the effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages fell to 4.09 per cent in January, down from 4.15 per cent in December. Rates on the existing stock of mortgages also edged lower, slipping to 3.90 per cent from 3.92 per cent.

While the dip offers some relief for borrowers, financial experts are warning that escalating conflict in the Middle East over the weekend could push up wholesale energy prices and reignite inflation. If that happens, expectations of further interest rate cuts could be delayed.

Alice Haine, Personal Finance Analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, said markets had been growing more confident about a seventh rate cut, supported by cooling inflation, rising unemployment and weak economic growth.

"However, she cautioned that a worsening geopolitical backdrop could quickly change that outlook.

For homeowners nearing the end of fixed-rate deals or considering a remortgage, any delay to rate reductions would mean higher borrowing costs for longer.

The data also showed net mortgage approvals for house purchases fell slightly to 60,000 in January, down from 61,000 in December, suggesting housing market activity remains subdued.

Ms Haine said the figures paint "a slightly bleaker picture than expected with mortgage approvals easing back, savings slowing and consumer borrowing on the rise."

She emphasised that the Bank of England data reflects past conditions rather than future trends, and that Britons faced a dramatically altered landscape following the weekend's spiralling Middle East conflict.

Jinesh Vohra, CEO of Sprive, warned that renewed geopolitical instability could complicate the Bank of England's anticipated path of further rate reductions this year.

"If disruption to energy supplies or global supply chains feeds into higher inflation, policymakers may have to be more cautious about how quickly and how far interest rates come down," he said.

Mr Vohra explained that this matters significantly for homeowners because expectations of declining rates have already helped mortgage pricing improve.

"Anything that pushes inflation higher could slow that progress, meaning rates may not fall as much - or as quickly - as borrowers hope," he added.

The uncertainty surrounding global events has left many mortgage holders questioning whether the recent downward trend in borrowing costs will continue.

For homeowners feeling financially secure, Mr Vohra suggested that making small, optional overpayments represents one of the few factors within their control during this period of uncertainty.

"Overpaying is one of the most powerful ways to become mortgage-free faster. Even small, regular overpayments can knock years off your term and save thousands," he said.

The modest reduction in effective mortgage rates offers some comfort to the approximately one million homeowners currently emerging from historic-low five-year fixed deals secured before interest rates began climbing in December 2021.

Ms Haine noted that this group is already preparing for substantially higher monthly repayments, making any relief in borrowing costs particularly welcome despite the uncertain outlook created by international events.