Despite the chaos, Scotland's voters are still turning to the SNP...and Starmer may pay the price

Despite the chaos, Scotland's voters are still turning to the SNP...and Starmer may pay the price
Millie Cooke

By Millie Cooke


Published: 12/01/2024

- 16:05

To become an electable force in Westminster, Starmer may have sacrificed many of the priorities of Scottish voters


The SNP had an almost catastrophic year in 2023.

Multiple arrests involving members of the party's top team and an investigation into its finances, the resignation of a leader which has long been seen as central to the party's success, and a steady decline in its support.


And yet, the Labour Party still trails ten points behind the SNP in the polls.

A poll conducted by Ipsos in November put the SNP on 40 per cent support - a drop of just one per cent since May.

Yousaf/Starmer

The SNP had an almost catastrophic year in 2023 - but Scottish voters are not flocking to Labour

PA

Labour are on 30 per cent support, an increase of also just one per cent.

Meanwhile, support for independence in September 2023 sat at 47 per cent, with 53 per cent wanting to remain in the union.

While the SNP is likely to lose seats at the next election, Labour's current support doesn't look anything strong enough to cause a wipeout similar to Blair's 1997 win in Scotland.

The crux of the issue for Labour is that there are many people who, despite wanting to remain part of the union, would still back the SNP - in spite of all the lows 2023 brought for the party.

This certainly isn't a result of the party's booming popularity.

Just look at the party's annual conference in October - Humza Yousaf was forced to deliver his main stage speech to a half-empty hall.

Despite moving to a venue with a smaller capacity than last year, the event was still significantly undersubscribed.

Conference Halls at both Conservative and Labour conferences were packed out for the leaders' speech, with both seeing queues outside the doors.

So why aren't disillusioned SNP voters turning to Labour?

Put simply - Scotland's voters are generally more left-wing than in England. And Starmer has shifted his Labour Party over to the centre, further away from what many voters in Scotland are comfortable backing at an election.

Starmer's mission is to become an electable force in Westminster. Sitting 20 points ahead of Sunak in the polls, he has certainly achieved something to that effect.

But in order to do so, he's had to sacrifice many of the priorities of Scottish voters. Just look at his comments on Margaret Thatcher - which were described as an "insult" to working-class Scots by a former Labour MSP.

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In a Sunday Telegraph column, Neil Findlay said people in Scotland would be "appalled" by the comments.

Even Anas Sarwar, Labour's leader in Scotland, condemned Thatcher and refused to defend Starmer's comments.

The Labour Party's mission to get itself elected in the UK may end up alienating Scottish voters - and it could cost them at a General Election.

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