REVEALED: Five polls just handed Reform a boost - but one paves the way for the biggest earthquake in history

WATCH: Martin Daubney reacts as Reform UK surges to 33% in a bombshell new poll

GB NEWS
James Saunders

By James Saunders


Published: 10/05/2025

- 21:49

Nigel Farage could see a majority 20 times the size of his current Commons headcount, according to an analysis by Election Maps UK

In the space of just two days this week, five polls - all by different pollsters - placed Reform UK on top.

Data from More In Common, YouGov, Find Out Now, Techne UK and BMG Research has revealed that growing numbers of Britons would vote for Nigel Farage's party if a General Election were held tomorrow.


In order, Reform polled at 27, 29, 33, 28 and 32 per cent - just days after it surged to local election and by-election success across the land on May 1.

Of that quintet of polls, the 33 per cent figure by Find Out Now has raised eyebrows across the political spectrum.

It also ranked Labour at 20 per cent, the Tories on 16, the Lib Dems on 15 and the Greens on 11.

Find Out Now poll

The 33 per cent figure by Find Out Now has raised eyebrows across the political spectrum

FIND OUT NOW

Analysis by Election Maps UK has found that, if the five parties received such a vote share at a General Election, it could trigger a major Reform surge - one which could dismantle Britain's historically stable two-party rule by a staggering degree.

Spread out across the country, Farage's party would take back 365 seats - an 80-seat majority.

Labour would be reduced from its 411 MPs returned in 2024 to just 97.

The Tories would be relegated from His Majesty's Loyal Opposition to become Britain's fifth-largest party.

Kemi Badenoch's party, on 23 seats, would be overtaken by both the Lib Dems and SNP - on 83 and 40 seats respectively - while both the Greens and Plaid Cymru would increase their headcount in the Commons.

LATEST MEMBERSHIP STORIES ON REFORM'S POLLING SURGE:

Farage

Data from More In Common, YouGov, Find Out Now, Techne UK and BMG Research has revealed that growing numbers of Britons would vote for Nigel Farage's party

GETTY

Find Out Now said the data can be largely explained by a large drop in Conservative support among over-65s.

Reform were now the largest party in that age group for the first time, it added, while 62 per cent of previous non-voters would also switch to Reform.

The party's potential 40-seat majority - labelled "walloping" by chairman Zia Yusuf - would see Farage take the keys to No10, and open the door to - if the party follows through on its manifesto commitments - sweeping changes to Britain's political landscape.

Farage/Electoral map

Spread out across the country, Farage's party would take back 365 seats - an 80-seat majority

GETTY/X/ELECTIONMAPSUK

But in a call for cool heads, polling guru Sir John Curtice told GB News that Britain may be already experiencing "peak Reform".

He explained: "Reform is appealing to voters who believe in Brexit, are concerned about immigration, and tend to be on the conservative side of the culture wars arguments."

In other words, older male voters who are less educated, he said, claiming that there's a limit to how much Reform can tap into this base.

That has done little to quell Yusuf's bullish remarks, however.

"History is being written," he recently declared.