Fresh polling this week dealt a blow to Reform's hopes of returning any MPs. While they were on 12 per cent support - the same as the Liberal Democrats - they were not close to taking any of the seats, despite coming second in 36.
The Lib Dems however, on equal footing with Reform at 12 per cent, would return 49 MPs, the MRP poll from YouGov indicated.
Given they're planning to contest every single Tory MP at the upcoming election, failing to be on track to win a single seat may well suggest the party is all bark and no bite.
But if you look at the impact the polling will have on the Conservative Party, it is clear that this isn't the case.
Polling published by YouGov this week suggested that Reform UK could cost the Conservative Party 41 of their seats at the next election. To make matters worse, six of those are held by cabinet ministers. It's here that Reform's real bite lies.
Polling published by YouGov this week suggested that Reform UK could cost the Conservative Party 41 of their seats at the next election. To make matters worse, six of those are held by cabinet ministers. It's here that Reform's real bite lies.
With Reform UK contesting every seat, the Tories are expected to lose a total of 11 Cabinet ministers. If they ducked out of the race, this number would drop to five and leave key Tories in place, such as Penny Mordaunt and Jacob-Rees Mogg.
The difference there would be significant for the perception of scale of the losses taken on election night and the parties ability to regroup after a defeat.
Given the Tories are facing the possibility of a worse defeat than John Major in 1997, every seat counts. And the possibility of Reform changing the number of seats they return by nearly 50 is absolutely massive, given they are playing with the prospect of returning just 155 in total.
If Reform decided not to contest the election Labour would take 24 fewer seats, the analysis of YouGov's polling, conducted by the Times, showed.
Reform is also likely to make an impact in Wales, with fresh polling from Redfield suggesting that Reform could overtake the Tories in Wales.
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The polling saw the Tories fall to 16 per cent, with Reform just one point behind at 15. If the two parties were to cross over, this could put Reform in a good position to become the main opposition party in the Senedd at the next set of elections in 2026.
While this is a long way out - and polls can shift drastically in that time - the current trajectory should be worrying for the Tories.
But what should concern the party even more, is that this threat has the ability to get much, much worse.
At his 60th birthday party this week, Nigel Farage is said to have been touting the possibility of a comeback - in stronger words than we've seen before from the ex-Ukip leader.
YouGov's Anthony Wells told the Times last month that Reform could overtake the Tories if the comeback became a reality.
Given the Tories approval ratings don't seem to be recovering - and are slowly creeping lower and lower - there's a possibility this could happen even without the return of Farage. But with it, the Tories would be at risk of oblivion.
