Reform UK could cost the Conservative Party 41 of their seats at the next election, new polling has shown. Of those, six are held by cabinet ministers.
Polling from YouGov this week indicated that the Conservative Party is on course for a worse defeat than that seen by John Major in 1997, with 11 cabinet ministers braced to lose their seats.
It suggests that Labour would take 403 seats, while the Tories would be reduced to 155 seats.
But analysis of the polling from the Times and YouGov showed that if Reform UK decided not to contest the next election, the Conservatives would win 196 seats - 41 more than if Reform UK were standing.
Reform UK could cost the Conservative Party 41 of their seats at the next election, new polling has shown. Of those, six are held by cabinet ministers
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Labour would take 374 seats, 24 fewer than the original polling suggested.
As many as six Cabinet ministers would be likely to keep their seats, including Penny Mordaunt, Mark Harper and Michelle Donelan.
Former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg would also keep his seat if Reform UK didn't contest it, the polling indicates. This week's polling suggested he would lose his seat at an election.
The survey put Labour on 41 per cent support, the Conservatives on 24 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent.
Reform UK was also on 12 per cent, the Greens were on seven per cent, while the SNP was on three per cent.
As many as six Cabinet ministers would also be likely to keep their seats, including Penny Mordaunt, Mark Harper and Michelle Donelan
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The polling showed that the SNP would lose 29 seats - with most of them going to Labour.
YouGov's survey polled 18,000 people between March 7 and March 27.
There has been growing concern over Sunak's leadership of the party in recent weeks, with MPs on the right of the party said to be weighing up getting behind a candidate to replace him and lead the country to an election.
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The polling put Reform UK on 12 per cent
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He is expected to call an election in the second half of this year, having ruled out an election on May 2.
Earlier this week, the Prime Minister said he wants to hold a general election when people “feel that things are improving”.
Speaking to BBC Radio Newcastle, he said: “I’ve said that repeatedly and clearly that my working assumption would be that we have a general election in the second half of the year. There’s been no change to that."
