Nigel Farage could be propelled towards No10 by focusing on a key chunk of the electorate, a polling guru has claimed.
James Johnson, a former special adviser to Theresa May who co-founded polling firm JL Partners, broke down who is currently saying they will vote for Reform UK and who Mr Farage might need to target to command a majority.
Speaking at a fringe event at Reform UK's conference on Friday, Mr Johnson revealed that Mr Farage is now 10-points clear of Labour on 32 per cent of the vote.
He also explained that almost half of Reform UK's voters have been defined as "Pessimist Patriots".
The group, which represents 21 per cent of the overall electorate, has an impact in as many as 125 seats.
However, Reform could still win over more "Pessimist Patriots".
Mr Johnson explained: “The fascinating thing about the 'Pessimist Patriots' is that not only are they the largest group in the electorate, but they’re also spread in exactly the right places if you want to win lots of seats. That is how Boris Johnson won his majority.”
The group is comprised primarily of older Brexit voters, who are more likely to be non-graduates, and who want to prioritise immigration control.
Nigel Farage spoke to GB News about what is next for his party | PAThey also tend to feel very patriotic but believe the country is broken as a result of successive governments.
Meanwhile, the second largest group supporting Mr Farage, "Big State Boomers", impacts around 86 seats.
Mr Johnson revealed that "Big State Boomers" still maintain high levels of support for the Tories but could prove vital for Mr Farage in 2029.
When it comes to who is needed to propel Reform UK to power, Mr Johnson also pointed out that those identified as being "Delivery Driven Optimists" and "Country Focused Centrists" are far more important to Mr Farage than members of the "Online Right" and "Freedom First Group".
A chart of who is currently voting for Reform UK
|GB NEWS/JLPARTNERS
In a choice between going after the middle or focusing on seeing off challenges from Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe, Mr Johnson said: “If Reform focuses on those smaller groups - the 'Online Right' or 'Freedom First Group' - you still get a huge bulk from the 'Pessimist Patriots', but you lose those centrists who are absolutely key to Reform’s support. You still get 259 seats, but it’s significantly less.”
JL Partners found that there are more than 170 constituencies where the middle-holding "Delivery Driven Optimists" and "Country Focused Centrists" could bring in seats for Reform.
Meanwhile, the figure for the "Online Right" drops to just 35, with the "Freedom First Group" nearing zero.
Explaining how Mr Farage could enter No10, Mr Johnson added: “If you get 'Pessimist Patriots' with 80 per cent effectiveness, Reform jumps 107 seats in one leap.
How focusing on the middle will deliver more seats for Reform UK than targeting those on the right
|GB NEWS/JL PARTNERS
"If you are a Reform strategist who wants to win a majority, the 'Pessimist Patriots' are absolutely key.
“If you do that strategy, you can also assume you’re going to win some of those 'Big State Boomers'. That takes you closer still to a majority.
“And if you win some of those centrists too, that’s stage five, you get over that 326-seat majority line.”
“We factor in Reform might lose some of those votes to the left as a result. But that only costs around 11 Reform seats.”
Keir Starmer could be in trouble if Nigel Farage courts more centrists to Reform UK
| PASince winning his Clacton seat in the 2024 General Election, Mr Farage has watered down some of his more Thatcherite economic ideas to appeal to a wider spectrum of voters.
He has recently called for the renationalisation of Thames Water and championed domestic steel production.
However, Mr Farage has also benefited from voters becoming more hardline on a number of cultural issues, including immigration.
YouGov found that 41 per cent of Britons trust Reform UK on immigration, with 49 per cent not giving Mr Farage their trust.