Home Office officials fear that annual net migration will settle at around 525,000, significantly higher than the government's expected level of 340,000.
This figure aligns with the high-end projections from the Office for National Statistics, according to internal assessments.
The discrepancy is attributed to migrants staying in the UK for longer periods than previously anticipated, while the number of people leaving has been overestimated.
Experts have said that the post-Brexit immigration system has fuelled a surge in non-EU migrants, who typically settle for longer periods in the UK.
Home Office officials fear that annual net migration will settle at around 525,000, significantly higher than the government's expected level of 340,000
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This trend is particularly evident among international students benefiting from the graduate visa scheme, which allows them to remain in the country for up to two years without securing employment.
ONS data reveals that 50 per cent of those arriving on study visas in 2021 transitioned to different visa types three years later, compared to just nine per cent of 2019 arrivals.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will publish the government's immigration white paper next week, outlining plans to fulfil Sir Keir Starmer's pledge to reduce net migration.
The document will include proposals to restrict failed asylum seekers and foreign criminals from using human rights laws to block deportation, according to the Times.
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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will publish the government's immigration white paper next week, outlining plans to fulfil Sir Keir Starmer's pledge to reduce net migration
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Ministers plan to constrain judges' interpretation of Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which protects the right to family life.
The government is also understood to redefine what constitutes a family connection to prevent deportation challenges.
There is growing concern within government, shared by Morgan McSweeney, the prime minister’s chief of staff, that immigration's economic benefits are being overstated in official forecasts.
The Office for Budget Responsibility is thought not to have fully accounted for additional strain on public infrastructure and services in its calculations.
Nigel Farage's Reform UK party has risen in popularity
PAHome Office officials and some Downing Street aides are pushing for these costs to be included in official OBR forecasts.
Experts warn that current economic models primarily capture migrants' early years in the UK, when they contribute most while using fewer public services.
The Prime Minister has refused to set a specific target for migration reduction, though aides have informally discussed bringing net migration down to around 200,000 annually by the next election in 2029.
The reforms are considered vital to Starmer's efforts to counter the rising popularity of Nigel Farage's Reform UK party.
Labour's significant losses in recent local elections have been partly attributed to a perceived failure to address immigration concerns by political commentators.
