Labour support in 'free fall' after 'devastating' local election results, polling guru claims

The Strathclyde University professor said the results in English local elections are also “good news” for SNP leader John Swinney, because Nigel Farage’s party is primarily taking votes from the First Minister’s opponents.

Reform UK gained more than 600 seats and took control of 10 local authorities in Thursday’s local elections.

Curtice warned that voters lost to Reform UK and the Greens "are not likely to return to the party any time soon". He also suggested Labour MPs now have more reason to fear Nigel Farage's Reform UK than Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives.

Despite having "little to lose" after poor results in 2021, Labour still managed to lose two-thirds of the seats it was defending in the recent local elections. The party's vote share fell by an average of nine points overall since 2021.

In Labour's heartland areas, the collapse was even more dramatic, with votes dropping by as much as 19 points in seats the party was defending.

Labour received no votes at all in 81 electoral wards and won no majority in any council. The party lost control of Doncaster, which it had held in 2021, and secured less than 15 per cent of the vote in half of councils.

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Reform UK emerged as a major beneficiary of Labour's decline, winning 677 council seats across England and taking control of Doncaster from Labour. The Liberal Democrats nearly doubled their seats to 370 overall, winning majority control of three councils.

Reform also secured a narrow victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, overturning a significant Labour majority by just six votes.

Curtice noted that Reform's advance made "little difference on how far the Labour vote dropped", suggesting the issue was not simply Reform's appeal but Labour itself.

"The party has seemingly lost the confidence of many of its heartland voters," he said.

Curtice pointed to "disappointment with Labour's record in office" as a key factor in the party's poor performance, particularly among core supporters. Cuts to winter fuel payments for pensioners were cited as a major issue on doorsteps during campaigning.

Labour's decisions to slash disability benefits and maintain the two-child benefit cap have also sparked criticism from within the party.

Veteran MP and former Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott warned against trying to "echo Reform", calling such a strategy "a party disaster."

Health Secretary Wes Streeting acknowledged voters are "shouting at the telly" because they are not feeling the change promised at the general election.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, has warned the Conservatives are "at the moment of maximum danger" with just 12 months to turn their fortunes around.

He highlighted the loss of key council seats in former Tory bastions like Kent, where they went from "having almost total control to being a third or fourth party".

Paul Bristow, newly elected Conservative mayor for Peterborough and Cambridgeshire, urged his party to "step up" and "stop the constant infighting".

Bristow admitted his victory came from "a personal vote" rather than the party brand. He advised fellow Tories to "acknowledge that this was the worst defeat the Conservative Party has ever faced".