Inside Kemi Badenoch's 'real deal' Conservative comeback fighting off Reform's threat in 'war of attrition'

It comes as some polls have suggested Ms Badenoch’s fortunes as Leader of the Opposition are changing for the better following the Tories' historic defeat to Labour in last year’s general election after 14 years in Government.

A new YouGov survey, published on Tuesday, found the proportion of Britons with a favourable opinion of Ms Badenoch has reached its highest level to date, with 26 per cent of respondents approving her — a rise of five points from last month.

By contrast, just 18 per cent of people hold a positive opinion of Sir Keir Starmer, his lowest to date since becoming Labour leader five years ago, while 72 per cent hold a negative view of the beleaguered Prime Minister.

Although Ms Badenoch trails Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, in terms of favourability, with 29 per cent having a positive view of him, fewer voters hold an unfavourable opinion of her by a margin of 52 per cent to 64 per cent.

Speaking exclusively to Britain’s News Channel, Tory chairman Kevin Hollinrake said Ms Badenoch’s “drumbeat of announcements” in 2025 — which included promises to abolish Stamp Duty and take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) — will ramp up in 2026.

He also acknowledged past doubts many Tory members had about Ms Badenoch since succeeding Rishi Sunak in November 2024, which led to speculation of Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick becoming a possible successor.

Mr Hollinrake said: “She is, no matter how we describe it, the real deal. She took time to get her policies right before bringing them forward. That started with the party conference in Manchester back in October and since then, we have had this drumbeat of announcements.

“She is always keen to hear people's views and has the courage of her convictions. So, I think people increasingly see the calibre of person she is. I think the country needs some tough love right now. And I think Kemi is the right person to dispense it. She (has) more policies to come, which will all be in the same vein... lower tax, lower regulation and making it easy to start and build a business.”

Asked about people's reservations of Ms Badenoch, Mr Hollinrake responded: “Being an opposition leader is new territory for any Conservative. People weren't listening to us. We suffered a very, heavy defeat. And the currency of politics is trust and that trust is gone.

“Kemi was clear rebuilding was going to take time. She decided to find her feet as leader. We also needed to find our own feet in terms of policies to ensure the shadow cabinet was working together. Lots of people criticised her for that.”

Sources attribute Ms Badenoch’s rising popularity to her improved performances during Prime Minister’s Questions, including Wednesday’s appearance in the Commons in which she challenged Sir Keir's record in No10 — saying he promised growth, but delivered only "broken promises".

Writing in the Daily Telegraph on Monday, former Tory MP Theresa Villiers argued Ms Badenoch’s speeches from the dispatch box played a “big part in the downfall” of Angela Rayner and Lord Mandelson.

She wrote: “Too many people have tried to write off the Conservative Party and their leader. But there is a reason why we have survived longer than any other political party in the world... This is a party under new leadership, and that leadership is laying the groundwork for recovery.”

Paul Fisher, a Westminster councillor who quit Labour and defected to the Tories in March over Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ plans “to tax, spend and borrow its way to prosperity", said he “underestimated” Ms Badenoch when she was a minister.

“Kemi is doing a superb job interrogating this failing government: from grooming gangs, to immigration and the economy, she's holding their feet to the fire,” he said. “This is usually a slow war of attrition, so soon after an election defeat. But she’s taking huge chunks out of Labour.”

Insiders have also praised CCHQ’s social media strategy as a key factor in boosting party morale and encouraging the country to get behind Ms Badenoch.

On Monday, Ms Badenoch was driven around Brands Hatch in a McLaren racecar as she demanded the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars be ditched.

A video of the stunt garnered more than 100,000 views on X, formerly known as Twitter. And ConservativeHome claims the party exceeded its annual reach targets online by 100 million earlier this month.

Luke Robert Black, Chairman of the LGBT+ Conservatives and founder of the Blue Beyond think-tank, said recent appointments to Ms Badenoch’s inner circle — including digital content lead Jacob Groet and former presenter-turned-MP Rob Butler — have helped grow her image.

Tory loyalists suggest legwork by Ms Badenoch’s frontbench has also helped restore stability to her position, such as Neil O’Brien, who drew up the list of proposed spending cuts in her keynote conference speech.

“That's the one thing I would say is really helping Kemi: the people she's picked around her,” Mr Black said. “Members are saying all the time, ‘Isn't she doing such a good job?’

"She looks more confident. She looks happier. She looks more relaxed. She is enjoying herself. And that's really coming through.”

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This confidence boost has resulted in Ms Badenoch’s party receiving £4.6million in donations between July and September, more than double what Labour raised but short of the £10million Reform garnered.

Others counsel caution, with YouGov’s most recent Westminster intention figures showing Ms Badenoch’s party languishing on just 18 points, one point behind Labour on 19 points and nine points behind Reform on 27 points.

Worse still, the Conservatives could be reduced to just 14 seats if an election were held now, according to Stack Data Strategy polling circulating inside Tory headquarters, and Ms Badenoch’s party is expecting another challenging set of local elections in May.

Dr David Jeffery, a senior lecturer in British politics at the University of Liverpool, commented: “Let's not overestimate how good things are at the moment. There are four years left of this Parliament. But it's going to be slow, steady progress. Whether momentum is maintained is another question entirely.”

Despite this outlook, Dr Jeffery said there are signs of encouragement for Ms Badenoch to take into the next general election, which is currently scheduled for 2029.

He said: “Politics is so volatile now people's ties to parties are weaker. We're likely to see bigger swings. You could see a situation where Reform gains power and has a record to be judged on. And then the Conservatives come in as the centre-right, sensible, efficient services option.

"Tactical voting does seem to be playing a greater role in each election. You will likely see some people willing to vote Conservative to keep Reform out. Or Lib Dem voters in Tory marginals where they don't like Farage.”

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