Boris Johnson's comeback plot faces 'Nigel Farage problem' as Reform insiders write off 'irrelevant' ex-PM's chances

A number of Johnson's long-standing allies vacated the House of Commons ahead of the 2024 General Election, including former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries and ex-Asia Minister Nigel Adams.

“There is no such thing as a safe seat these days and it would take a real Boris loyalist to step aside for him,” an ally of the ex-Prime Minister told GB News.

“Boris is an election winner and I doubt he would want to break his winning streak.”

Another Johnson ally asked: “Are there any Tory ‘safe seats’ left right now? And if there were, would any MP want to surrender it and cause a by-election?

“Currently the polls have it that if there were an election right now, the Conservatives would lose another 30 Parliamentary seats.”

The Tory Party’s woes have been confounded by the rise of Reform UK, with Farage's double-digit lead over Kemi Badenoch dragging the current Conservative rump towards a Canada-style wipeout.

And Reform UK insiders now believe the populist party can stop Johnson winning a by-election with its professionalised ground campaign.

“Boris would struggle to find a seat he could actually win given the strength of our campaign machine and Tory collapse,” a senior Reform source told GB News.

“He and the Tories would have to be very brave,” another Farage ally claimed. “[Oliver] Dowden can’t get a peerage as the Tories fear a by-election.”

The Tories last claimed a by-election victory in 2023 when a Ulez backlash ensured Steve Tuckwell won Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

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Johnson himself spearheaded the Tories' only by-election gain since 2017 as voters in Hartlepool handed the Conservatives a vaccine bounce in 2021.

However, the 2024 General Election saw large swathes of true blue England decimated, including Johnson’s first parliamentary seat of Henley in Oxfordshire.

Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats mounted a further onslaught against the Tories earlier this month, handing Kemi Badenoch net losses at 676 as the Conservatives lost control of all 16 of its previously held councils.

Despite the grim electoral outlook, Johnson’s allies remain confident that the former Prime Minister can emulate his 2019 triumph.

“It would be a battle for the ages and I am certain Boris would back himself,” a top Tory said.

However, the stumbling blocks put in front of a potential Johnson’s comeback have also led to some once-loyal disciples searching for a new leadership contender.

“Boris is still an option but it's a two-step process and I’m not sure he wants it just now,” a Johnson-supporting Tory said. “Robert Jenrick is a real option.”

And some Tories do not want Johnson to return to the Tory fold.

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“Boris Johnson is our Jeremy Corbyn,” a Tory insider said. “The idea that the Tory’s saviour is the architect of net zero, the man behind four years of record legal migration, and who resigned in a web of his own moral failings, shows the party has clearly learned nothing. Reform would eat him alive.”

Ex-Conservative MP Michael Fabricant, who loyally defended Johnson throughout his time in No10, even suggested Johnson himself might not want to return to the political frontline.

“I am not convinced that Boris wants a ‘comeback’,” the former Lord Commissioner of the Treasury said. “He’s been there, got the T-shirt, and moved on to other things.”

Despite Johnson throwing his weight behind Badenoch earlier this month, it is not clear if the Tories will open the door to the ex-Prime Minister's potential by-election candidacy.

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Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick was the only leadership contender to extend an olive branch to Johnson in 2024, declaring: "I would be pleased to welcome him."

But Badenoch stopped short of voicing support for Johnson's return to Westminster.

Speaking to GB News last week, the Leader of the Opposition instead said: "I love Boris. He sends me lots of messages, lots of advice - like Iain Duncan-Smith, like David Cameron.

"I have great people, who have been in this situation before, who have been in difficult times. But it's up to him what he wants to do, I have to focus on my job."

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However, while speculation swirls about Johnson's political ambitions, the former Prime Minister's rumoured comeback plot was handed a major boost earlier today.

A new Survation opinion poll, conducted for The Telegraph, found 60 per cent of 2024 Tory voters believe Johnson makes a better leader than Badenoch - with the former Prime Minister's net advantage hitting 27 per cent.

Johnson also polled well among those who supported Reform UK last July, with half saying the ex-Prime Minister would make a better leader of the Conservatives than Badenoch.

The polling showed that Badenoch's other perceived rivals for the leadership have far less cut through than Johnson.

Jenrick's net advantage over Badenoch stood at just nine per cent, marginally higher than James Cleverly's three per cent net lead.

However, Farage consistently dismisses the threat posed by both Johnson and Jenrick.

Speaking in Westminster earlier this week, Farage said: “Now there is somebody who fancies his chances.

“He’s been on Ozempic, he’s running marathons, I noticed a very nice new Savile Row suit the other day, perhaps he even had his teeth done, I don’t know.

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“But it’s completely irrelevant whether Robert Jenrick becomes leader of the Conservative Party or Kemi Badenoch stays on as party leader.

“It’s completely irrelevant if Boris Johnson, although he’s got some pretty heavy domestic duties by the looks of it, whether he decides to return.

“They will not be trusted again. They have no chance of winning the next general election, none whatsoever. And I don’t really wish to spend much more time talking about them.

“They did sink to fourth in the opinion polls with YouGov. It is over, it is done. They’ve had a good 200 years. It is now finished.”

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Despite Johnson’s allies first tipping the former Prime Minister to siphon off votes from Farage in February, the father-of-nine dismissed speculation of a comeback earlier this month.

Appearing on GB News shortly after the 2025 Local Elections bloodbath, Johnson said: “I'm not convinced I am in a position to do that at the moment.

“Our party is in a tough spot. As Kemi [Badenoch] has said, we always knew going into these Local Elections that it wasn't going to be brilliant. Everybody knew that was coming.

“And I think one thing, Kemi is a very interesting and original mind. I think she's probably the most original thinker of the current crop of leaders by a long, long way. And I think she just needs time to get going.”