Andy Burnham bottles snap general election after polling guru makes Reform prediction

A spokesman for the wannabe Prime Minister told Bloomberg he was now ruling out the move, meaning a poll is still likely to take place in 2029 if Mr Burnham replaces Sir Keir.

However, Mr Burnham previously told GB News he was committed to seeing out his third term as Greater Manchester Mayor before returning to Westminster.

Mr Burnham would trigger a metro mayor by-election, which is expected to cost taxpayers around £4.5million, if Labour sees off the threat from Reform UK on June 18.

But Reform UK continues to pose a major challenge to Labour nationally, with Sir John suggesting Nigel Farage is on track to be Britain's next Prime Minister.

The polling guru said: "While turning around the economy and the NHS might help the current Government to try to reduce the level of support for Reform, it's unlikely to be sufficient at the end of the day.

"The future of Reform, and whether it continues its current levels of support, even becomes more popular or not, depends very much on the ability of other political parties to appeal by one means or another to this relatively socially Conservative section of British society, which at the moment, at least, is very, very distinct."

Sir John, who claimed Reform UK is now much more than a protest vote, added: "It is not obvious that the Labour Party is particularly well placed itself to meet the challenge from Reform in terms of votes.

"If these folk are going to leave Reform, given their history, they are more likely to go back to the Conservatives than they are to Labour."

Mr Burnham, who is expected to mount his third bid for the Labour leadership if he returns to Westminster, is considered best-placed to take on Reform UK.

Polls suggest Mr Burnham could give Labour a three-point boost, knocking two per cent from Reform UK's vote share.

Tory insiders have also admitted the Conservative Party is not ready for the country to go to the polls.

"The fear is that it will catch us completely off guard," a Tory source told The Daily Mail. "We are not ready."

However, Mr Farage has already been calling for a snap general election if Sir Keir is forced to step down.

Speaking to The Telegraph, the Reform UK leader said: "Yes. The public have had enough of Prime Ministers constantly changing.”

The public also supports holding a snap election if Sir Keir is booted out of power.

A bombshell poll by BMG Research found that almost half of Britons – 48 per cent – would support a snap election.

Meanwhile, just 32 per cent of voters opposed the idea, and 19 per cent either did not know or were undecided.

Labour grandees had openly suggested Mr Burnham and other figures plotting against Sir Keir would need to receive a fresh mandate from the public if they win the keys to No10.

Baroness Harriet Harman, who was recently appointed to advise Sir Keir on women and girls, said: “There is a scenario in which the new leader, let’s call him Andy Burnham, for example, actually thinks: ‘I need a new mandate,’ rather than just manage the implementation of Keir Starmer’s mandate.

"And if he were to have a big surge in the polls, he might think that in that case, he should go for a general election.”

She added: “I don’t want to say that a change of leadership is inevitable, and I 100 per cent want Andy Burnham to win in that Makerfield by-election and come down to Westminster.

"But I don’t want a leadership challenge, and I also don’t want a general election – another general election."