Are pensioners the forgotten vote that the Tories and Labour need to remember? Well, the pensioners’ vote is not forgotten, but there’s a risk that resentment amongst pensioners grows, hitting both the Tories and Labour.
And electorally pensioners matter because they vote in much greater numbers than younger people. At the last General Election 47 per cent of 18-24’s voted, but over 70 per cent of pensioners did so.
And it matters much more for the Tories. In 2019 under 20 per cent of pensioners voted Labour, compared to over 60 per cent to the Tories.
But go back to periods when Labour was more successful electorally (as is very likely to be the case now) and it was a lot closer.
Bill Rammell claims that pensioner resentment will hit both the Tories and Labour
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Between 1987 and 2010 the Tory pensioner vote was never higher than 48 per cent and Labour’s vote never lower than 31 per cent.
So, the vote of pensioners matters. In my 13 years as the Labour MP for Harlow between 1997 and 2010, the most noisy and organised vote was the Pensioners' Union.
When I held the Harlow seat by just 97 votes in 2005 at the count I was well behind until the postal votes were opened, and the solid Labour voting pensioners (because they are much more likely to vote by post) took me to victory.
So, the pensioners vote counts. That’s why Labour delivered the Pensions Credit, lifting one million pensioners out of poverty, free TV licences for the over 75’s and the Winter Fuel Allowance. It's why the Tories delivered the Pensions Triple Lock.
But times and needs change. Pensioners today are less likely to be in poverty than working aged people. A huge change.
And there has been huge intergenerational unfairness, with pensioners protected at the expense of the young, over the last 14 years.
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The Tories committed to a state pension triple lock
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Pensioners have been largely protected from austerity, whilst the young have been hit by higher university fees, lack of access to affordable housing, and a retirement age that seems to be moving out of sight. And young people have seen Covid-19 exacerbating their plight.
Even the basic right to vote has under the Tories disadvantaged the young. A pensioners bus pass is valid ID to vote, but not a student pass or rail card.
But there is a real risk that (as often happens in public policy making), that we go from one extreme to the other, and the needs of pensioners are now ignored.
The pensions triple lock will have to be reformed, because it is unsustainable financially as the Head of the Institute for Fiscal Policies has argued. (Although Labour and the Tories are committed to keeping it.) Reform will need real care and explanation in terms of fairness.
The two recent budgets have tipped tax policy against pensioners. A four per cent cut in NI, but pensioners don’t pay NI, which means with frozen tax thresholds, more pensioners are paying tax and paying higher tax.
And the mantra that “we played by the rules, paid into a pension on which we were taxed, and now we’re being taxed on our pension” really cuts through with pensioners.
Labour are expected to get a larger share of the pensioner vote compared to 2019
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Free TV licences for the over 75’s have been tipped against the elderly. It used to be universal under Labour, but is now restricted to pensioner households receiving pension credit.
And the NHS and social care matter hugely to pensioners. Waiting lists have gone from 18 weeks to 18 months, pensioners can’t get a GP appointment.
There is a Social Care crisis with the risk of losing your home to pay for it. Already, home owners lose around 50 per cent of the value of their property if paying for residential care for an average stay of four years.
Despite repeated Government commitments to tackle this nothing has been done.
All these things matter to pensioners. And because they vote much more heavily than the young, they will be heard. Both the Tories and Labour need to beware.