Starmer is far too complacent - Labour knows they’ll lose votes and Reform UK will be the reason

A major problem for Labour is it’s incredibly weak on immigration. They’ve voted against all tougher legislation and they refuse to offer a decent plan to stop illegal immigrants.

Starmer, less than 12 months ago, published his big five missions to save Britain and not one of them involved tackling immigration.

In contrast, the public has become increasingly concerned about immigration, surveys show it is a top issue.

Now at 9 per cent in the polls, Reform UK, which has only been around a few years, are on a similar footing to the Lib Dems, a party that has existed for hundreds of years.

And one reason Reform UK are increasing their support is because they have a policy of net zero immigration, and tough plans to tackle the small boats.

Yes, Reform UK will take votes off some Conservative MPs who are trying to retain their seats at this year’s General Election. However, Reform will also stop Labour from winning key marginal seats that they need to form a majority in Parliament.

Labour needs Conservative voters – such as those who abandoned them in 2019 because of Jeremy Corbyn – to come to Starmer. However, it’s quite possible that they’ll either stay where they are or go to Reform UK.

As time marches on and people start to look in detail at the political parties’ policies it’s also highly likely that some of those saying they’ll vote Labour now will peel off from the party and vote Reform.

Also, there is still a high proportion of voters who are undecided about how they’ll vote. My prediction is that decent proportions of undecided voters will eventually go to Reform UK because they want to support a party that has decisive, no-nonsense policies.

Finally, research by YouGov shows that those proposing to vote for Reform UK are aware that their candidate might not win, but that doesn’t put them off voting for that Party – they’re determined to protest against the mainstream parties.

Whilst it is very unlikely that Reform UK will win any parliamentary seats this time round, because of our first-past-the-post system, they are undoubtedly going to disrupt results in a number of key constituencies.

Their leader, Richard Tice, has just started attacking Starmer as well as the Conservatives, and that’s because he knows some of their voters can and will come over to him.

Starmer is far too complacent, he thinks he can simply walk into 10 Downing Street the day after the General Election. I suspect the results will be far more complex and he could even be deprived of a majority, not least because of Reform UK – watch this space.

Simon Danczuk is the former Labour Member of Parliament for Rochdale. He is now a business consultant, commentator and author.