With the potential leadership race hotting up, Makerfield MP Josh Simons has announced that he will be stepping aside – triggering a by-election in the constituency and providing Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham with the opportunity to put himself forward as a parliamentary candidate.
After blocking Burnham’s attempt to become Labour’s candidate in last February’s by-election in Gorton and Denton, it has been reported that Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will not seek to use his authority and control over the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to do so again.
To be blunt, the under-pressure Starmer is simply not in the position to repeat the move, especially after losing the confidence of much of the parliamentary party – including big hitters such as former health secretary Wes Streeting (who submitted a sharply-worded resignation letter and has leadership ambitions of his own).
There were rumours suggesting that the Labour MP for Manchester Rusholme, Afzal Khan, could step down so Burnham could contest the by-election in the hope of securing a return to Parliament and replacing Starmer as party leader (ultimately having the keys to 10 Downing Street).
However, Khan quickly dismissed such reports, declaring that he had no intention to quit. In any case, a Manchester Rusholme by-election would have presented significant challenges for Burnham.
It has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims in the country, with one in three people in the constituency falling into this religious category.
Labour is continuing to haemorrhage British Muslim support, with a recent Policy Exchange report revealing that nearly half of Muslims across polled areas, such as Greater Manchester, would consider voting for the Green Party to prevent a Labour candidate from winning in their local area.
While Burnham is a big name and is well known in that neck of the woods, the power of anti-Labour tactical voting among British Muslims should not be underestimated - especially in a situation where Burnham contested Manchester Rusholme against a Green Party candidate (after Khan - a Muslim Labour MP - had stood down).
While polling suggested that Burnham could have prevented Labour’s disastrous performance in the Gorton & Denton by-election (with The Muslim Vote campaign encouraging Muslim voters to support the Green Party after he was blocked by Starmer from being the party’s candidate), it did expose the degree of anti-Labour sentiment among British Muslims living in the Greater Manchester region.
To understand the political earthquake that's about to erupt, look to these eight wards | Getty Images
Labour was knocked down to third place in an area where it had not lost an election since 1931 – finishing behind second-placed Reform UK and the victorious Greens in the by-election.
Considering the major damage done to the relationship between the Labour Party and Muslim voters in recent times, winning in Manchester Rusholme would have been a tricky assignment for Burnham, and the Greens would have had a serious chance of gaining the seat (especially if George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain had stepped aside, just like it did for the Gorton & Denton by-election).
Burnham, however, is not guaranteed to win the Makerfield by-election. While some may consider it to be more ‘electorally favourable’ for him as it is an overwhelmingly white-British seat and has few Muslim voters, Labour is hardly flavour of the month with the northern English working classes.
In fact, the party took a beating at the hands of Reform UK in the wards of Makerfield in last week’s local elections. In the ward of Abram, Reform’s majority over Labour is 1,114 votes, while in Hindley, it is 1,082.
Across the eight wards of relevance, Reform emerged victorious in every single one. Of course, turnout is likely to be much higher in a high-stakes by-election of national political significance – with the possibility of the many disillusioned anti-Starmer Labour voters coming out to back Burnham.
However, Reform UK will throw the kitchen sink at it – gaining the seat and defeating Burnham would be a truly remarkable victory that would plunge Labour into a crisis of epic proportions and point us towards a handsome parliamentary majority for Nigel Farage’s party at the next general election.
The big question here is whether the white-British working-class voters in Makerfield can trust Burnham to turn the Labour Party into a political institution that pushes back against the economic and cultural excesses of globalisation.
Whether it is Makerfield or Manchester Rusholme, there is no seat which is a truly safe one for Labour, with an anti-establishment, cross-ideological tsunami threatening to sweep this 126-year-old party into electoral oblivion.
Burnham may talk a big game, but is he really the man who can save his party and overcome the rise of multiple populist challengers in an era of weakened traditional loyalties?