Keir Starmer’s much-trumpeted immigration deal with Emmanuel Macron, the so-called “one in, one out” arrangement, is little more than political theatre. It gives the appearance of action while achieving next to nothing.
The Prime Minister wants to appear as if he is “doing something” about the illegal boat crossings in the Channel. But beneath the fanfare lies a hard truth: his flagship policy of “smashing the gangs” has smashed exactly zero gangs.
The reason is brutally simple: the people smuggling trade is just far too lucrative to dismantle with platitudes and press releases.
Unlike drugs, which can be intercepted and destroyed, human cargo does not disappear. Migrants picked up in the Channel are not removed from circulation; they are simply returned to shore and try again the next day. And they will continue to try, again and again, until they succeed.
The odds are firmly on their side. Even if the UK somehow manages to return 1 in 17 of those who arrive, as is optimistically speculated, the remaining 16 will make it.
For many, even a one in 100 chance would still be enough to risk the journey. These are not casual calculations for the migrants; they are often desperate people who are literally willing to risk their lives. What happens to the minority who are returned to France? That, too, is far from a deterrent.
Keir Starmer's migrant deal is a total farce. Not only is it doomed, it hides a hard truth - Dr Azeem Ibrahim
Getty Images
France, like other European countries, offers very little in terms of support or long-term prospects. Even if granted asylum, most of these individuals want to come to Britain, where they know they will receive free housing, three meals a day, private healthcare and, crucially, a pathway to citizenship.
From there, family reunification laws allow them to bring their loved ones over, too.
That is why no agreement with France will ever solve this problem. Britain remains the top destination of choice for one overwhelming reason: the benefits of making it are simply too great, and the risks far too manageable.
We are living in what historians will likely call the Age of Migration. The global south is moving, fleeing war, climate change, economic collapse and repression.
The UK is a prime target, not because of geography, but because it is perceived as the most rewarding destination for those who get through. Unless and until we remove those rewards, or dramatically shift the risk/reward calculus, nothing will change.
This is why I argued in my recent report for the Henry Jackson Society, Starmer’s Prospective Immigration Policy, that deterrence only works when it is absolute. If there is even a one per cent chance of success, people will still come.
If there are any exceptions, for children, for families, for certain nationalities, people will still come. The only way to break the market is to ensure that every person who arrives illegally knows with 100 per cent certainty that they will be swiftly and permanently removed, whether to Rwanda or elsewhere.
Any policy short of that, including costly, bureaucratic deals with the French, is a waste of time and taxpayer money. Starmer’s Macron pact will not stop the boats. It will not dissuade the gangs.
It will not ease the pressure on our overstretched asylum system. It will, however, generate headlines, which is perhaps the real point.
But headlines won’t stop the crossings. Only hard choices will. And so far, Starmer has shown no appetite for making them.