The Conservatives' Rwanda scheme was a better deterrent to stop migrant crossings than Labour’s "one-in, one-out" policy, new research has found.
In the International Migration Review, a peer-reviewed journal, complex modelling found Labour’s plan has reduced small boat arrivals by less than nine per cent compared to levels otherwise expected between July 10 and October 31.
However, the study found the Tories' plan to relocate asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing and resettlement had a much larger deterrent effect, as after it was scrapped in Labour’s first days of power, migrant arrivals surged by 24 per cent.
Additionally, the 2022 Albania returns agreement, signed by then-Home Secretary Priti Patel, reduced migrant crossings by 36 per cent.
And while the Rwanda scheme and Albania returns agreement show a marked difference to the meagre "one in, one out" scheme, the Dublin III regulation, which saw migrants returned to the EU, blows both out of the water.
When the regulation was scrapped as part of the Tories’ Brexit deal, arrivals shot up 41 per cent higher than projected.
The research also suggests that the total number of crossings this year will reach 45,651 - roughly in line with that of 2022, comfortably Britain's record year for illegal migrants.
The number currently stands in excess of 39,000 in 2025, which closely follows the trajectory of that record-breaking year.
New research has found that the Conservatives' Rwanda scheme was a better deterrent to stop migrant crossings than Labour’s 'one-in, one-out' policy
| GETTYThe "one in, one out" scheme has so far returned 100 migrants, but is estimated to have reduced those crossing by 8.8 per cent.
Data scientist Dr Richard Wood, who conducted the research to create the model, did caution, however, that this decline was within the "expected variation" and may not have been directly caused by the scheme.
Using the model, Dr Wood predicted 16,746 migrants would cross into British shores from July 10 to October 31. The number is actually 15,264, 1,482 lower than expected.
He claims that the data shows that migrant arrivals can be predicted.
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Just 100 individuals are said to have been removed from the country under Labour's 'one in, one out' scheme
|GETTY
"This could be useful for both operationally – informing adequate preparation of enforcement agencies at departure coasts, and strategically – choosing deterrents that are known to work," he explained.
And while the Home Office said that it "did not recognise" Dr Wood's research, it did admit an evaluation of the "one in, one out" scheme had begun.
A spokesman said: "Our pilot scheme, which continues to be scaled up, has already resulted in more than 100 illegal migrants with no right to remain in the United Kingdom being returned to France.
"In contrast, the Rwanda scheme cost taxpayers £700m and delivered only four voluntary returns.
"Thanks to this agreement, migrants who pay people smugglers to cross the Channel now know they risk being sent straight back to France."
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp condemned Labour's decision to scrap the Rwanda policy.
"We have some simple facts. The Labour Government made a catastrophic mistake by cancelling the Rwanda removals deterrent just before it started, and numbers crossing have surged since the election," he said.
"Since the government’s so-called ‘one in, one out’ deal was announced, about 16,000 illegal immigrants have come in and only about 100 sent out – so illegal channel immigrants have a 99.5 per cent chance of staying in the UK."
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