British pub-goers could soon be paying as much as £9 for a pint as escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to drive up energy and supply chain costs, according to industry figures.
Experts say the increases could materialise before the end of the year if current pressures persist.
Tom Stainer, chief executive of the Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA), said: "If these cost pressures continue, prices will go up.
"It's not impossible to see a £8 or £9 pint in London before too long, perhaps £7 elsewhere."
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Mounting financial strain has already been building across the sector, with operators facing higher minimum wage bills, increased business rates and sustained rises in energy costs.
Fresh disruption linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route, has intensified those pressures by contributing to higher fuel and wholesale energy prices.
Energy markets have reacted sharply, with Brent crude rising to around $103 a barrel, equivalent to roughly £82, while European gas prices have also increased following attacks on infrastructure and shipping routes.
Exposure across the brewing industry is particularly pronounced, as rising costs are being felt at multiple stages from production through to final sale.
Pints could hit £9 as Iran conflict drives up pub costs
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Brewers are facing increased bills for the energy required to produce beer, maintain refrigeration systems and ensure proper storage conditions.
Additional cost pressures are emerging through distribution networks, where higher fuel prices have driven up transport expenses for deliveries to pubs and bars.
Once products reach venues, operators must absorb further increases through heating, lighting and refrigeration, placing additional strain on already tight margins.
These combined cost increases are now being passed along the supply chain, raising the likelihood of higher prices for consumers at the bar.
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Limited financial reserves across much of the hospitality sector mean many venues have little capacity to absorb further increases without passing them on to customers
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Molly Monks, an insolvency expert at Parker Walsh, said the effects of rising costs are likely to be felt quickly, particularly among businesses without fixed energy contracts in place.
"We would expect the impact to begin feeding through relatively quickly, often within a matter of weeks rather than months," Ms Monks said.
Variation across the sector is expected, with smaller brewers and independent pubs likely to experience the most immediate financial pressure.
"Bigger operators may be better placed to negotiate supply contracts or spread costs across a larger estate," Ms Monks said.
"Independent pubs and brewers do not always have that protection, which means sudden cost increases can put immediate pressure on cash flow," she added.
If elevated costs persist, changes may extend beyond pricing, with operators potentially scaling back promotions and reducing the range of drinks available in an effort to manage expenditure.
"What begins as a geopolitical crisis can very quickly become a real issue for everyday UK businesses and for the people using them," Ms Monks said.
Concerns over the wider economic impact of the Iran conflict have also weighed on consumer confidence, raising the prospect of reduced footfall as households rein in discretionary spending.
Beer continues to play a central role in UK social life, with price increases at the bar reflecting broader economic pressures affecting both businesses and consumers.