A general election could take place in just WEEKS fear panicked Tories - analysis by Christopher Hope
'One Cabinet minister told me that they saw the problems facing the party as in part of Sunak's own making'
The Tories are now flirting with the collapse of the Government - it is not hard to imagine how the Government could be defeated tonight
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“If we lose tonight there will be an election in February. Is that what they want?” The warning from the senior Tory MP - from the left of the party - was stark.
There is barely disguised disbelief in Westminster that the Conservative party should be marking the four-year anniversary of Boris Johnson's historic 2019 election landslide by tearing itself apart over the Rwanda policy.
One Cabinet minister told me that they saw the problems facing the party as in part of Sunak's own making.
Boris Johnson would never have chosen five such largely negative targets for the year - cutting NHS waiting lists, halving inflation, cutting debt and stopping the boats. The most positive was growing the economy.
WATCH: Sunak accused of 'lying to voters' over migration
Instead, they said Johnson would have picked five targets which were relentlessly upbeat - like building more hospitals or hiring more police.
Another problem is that stop the boats is such a definitive policy. The PM did not say that he would cut crossings by 30 per cent (which he has done). He said he would stop them.
And for Conservative right-wingers in the so-called "five families" groups, such a clear statement of intent requires a similarly clear-sighted response from the Government.
But we are where we are. And the Tories are now flirting with the collapse of the Government. It is not hard to imagine how the Government could be defeated tonight.
It only needs more than 28 Tories to rebel, or twice that to abstain and Sunak will have lost his Bill, the first defeat at a second reading since 1986.
Labour's response will surely be to table a vote of confidence in the Government as soon as possible, if only to add further to the Conservative misery.
I fully expect the Tories to win any such vote (even Conservatives won't vote for an election when they are 20-plus points behind in the polls).
But it looks dreadful and will just demonstrate to voters that the party's MPs are happier fighting among themselves than offering a reason why they deserve a fifth term in office.
And if they lose any no confidence vote then we will be facing a general election as soon as February.
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Sunak told his MPs at a meeting of the 1922 committee of backbench Tories last week "we have a year to pull together", clearly hinting at an Autumn 2024 election.
Depending on what happens today, that choice of when to go to the country might be made for him.
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