Facing existential threats on both sides, Rishi Sunak has begun the battle to save his job. But even if he wins tonight's vote, the real fight is yet to come.
MPs will vote this evening on the Government's new Rwanda Bill. But with the right wing of his party demanding he pulls his shiny new legislation, and the liberal wing of the party threatening to withdraw support if he caves to their demands - the PM is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
While the right wing faction, made up of the New Conservatives, the European Research Group, the Northern Research Group, the Conservative Growth Group and the Common Sense Group, have issued heavy criticism of his legislation, they are yet to issue a public decision on how they will vote this evening.
There is a chance Sunak's Bill will scrape through today - as some MPs critical of the legislation believe that they will be able to have more of an impact if they vote it through today and make amendments in the new year.
But if Sunak can't prove to his MPs that the legislation he's drafted will do the job of stopping the boats, next year's fight will be just as perilous for the PM.
The five groups on the right of the party have argued that, in its current state, the Bill does not "go far enough to deliver the policy as intended".
Following analysis by its 'Star Chamber' of lawyers, the backbench coalition said the legislation would "require very significant amendments, some of which would potentially be outside the current title’s scope."
But the liberal One Nation caucus has threatened to withdraw its support if such amendments are introduced.
Sunak has spent the morning with right wing MPs from the New Conservatives Group, and will meet with the One Nationers today as part of a desperate attempt to guarantee their backing.
His decision to fly back MPs and ministers from trips abroad, including Net Zero Minister Graham Stuart in the final hours of Cop28, highlights just how tight the Prime Minister expects this vote to be.
But even if Sunak's MPs do lend enough support to allow the bill to pass through tonight, the positions held by the major factions on each side of the party are, at present, completely incompatible with one another.
Party chair Richard Holden told GB News today that the Government is "open to discussions" over tweaks to "toughen up" the legislation.
But it's hard to see how the PM will navigate this without alienating large swathes of his party - and, ultimately, bringing his ability to maintain the confidence of his MPs into question.
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Even if tonight's vote goes his way, the PM has a mammoth job of political manoeuvring ahead of him
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If Sunak can't persuade backbenchers on both sides to get on board at the next stage of this legislation, he will once again be fighting for survival.
Even if tonight's vote goes his way, the PM has a mammoth job of political manoeuvring ahead of him.
